Understanding the Macroeconomic Implications of the Dynamics of Monetary Policy Measures: Lesson from the Nigerian Economy (Published)
In this paper, econometrics evidence linking monetary policy measures to key macroeconomic goals with emphasis on price stability and unemployment is provided using error correction mechanism (ECM), unit root and cointegration tests in addition to basic descriptive statistics. The unit root test results showed that the variables are mixed integrated. The outcomes of the cointegration test reveal that the variables in each of the models have long run relationship and as such can be represented as an ECM. The estimated parsimonious ECM show that the current values of cash reserve ratio and exchange rate as well as lagged values of credit to the private sector are positively and significantly related to inflation. On the contrary, the short run effect of contemporaneous and lagged values of interest rate on inflation is negative. Additionally, money supply exerts significant negative effect on inflation during the study period. The result of the estimated unemployment model reveals that the current and first lag of interest rate has significant positive effect on unemployment. The result also shows that the current and third lag of money supply has significant positive impact on unemployment rate. The short run impact of credit to the private sector and third lag of exchange rate on unemployment is negative. The error correction coefficients in each of the models are associated with the expected negative sign and are statistically significant at 5 percent level. Owing to the findings, the paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should adequately monitor the implementation of monetary policy in order to prevent or reduce bottlenecks that may impair its effectiveness in achieving goals of price stability and employment generation.
Keywords: Cointegration, ECM and Nigeria, Monetary Policy, Price Stability, Unemployment
Analysis of Poverty Level Among Urban Households in Irewole Local Government Area of Osun State (Published)
Poverty is multi-dimensional. It is characterized by lack of purchasing power, exposure to risk, malnutrition, high mortality rate, low life expectancy, insufficient access to social and economic services and few opportunities for income generation. This study was carried out in Irewole local government area of Osun state to determine the level of poverty in the study area. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution, percentage, regression and Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) model. A total of 120 copies of questionnaire were administered for collection of information from respondent.The results from the analyzed data indicated that most of the respondents were middle-aged with mean age of approximately 38years, about 75.2% of the respondents are married, 86.0% of them had formal education. The mean income of the respondents was analyzed to be #57,590.91 and the mean per capita is ₦12,625.441, the poverty line was also analyzed to be #8,416.96, the poverty incidence of 36.36 percent shows the percentage of those that fell below the poverty line, the poverty depth of 7.2 percent shows that the income of the respondents needs to be raised by that percentage to move out of poverty, and the severity is 2.79 percent which implies that poverty exist but not so severe in the study area. The study recommends that more effort and resources should be devoted to poverty reduction programmes. However, there is need for the government to formulate and implement policies that will provide employment, housing, education, improved health care facilities and other things specifically for the urban poor.
Keywords: Irewole, Poverty Level, Unemployment, Urbanization