Fiscal policy is one of the public sector tools used in the pursuit of these macro-economic goals. Fiscal policy could then be said to be an embodiment of all government plans aimed at achieving desired macro-economic goals, without directly altering the level of money supply. Nigeria, like most other Third World Countries, is committed to the achievement of a range of economic objectives such as high level of employment, rapid economic development, equitable distributions as well as reasonable price stability. However, the problem of rising prices has been particularly acute in recent years and has not responded to monetary and fiscal measures. In particular, it is becoming increasingly evident that we cannot count on maintaining the desirable level of economic development and simultaneously achieving reasonable price stability (Tomori, S., 1982). It is in realization of this fact that emphasis is on highlighting the various fiscal policy measures with respect to the problem of inflation. Furthermore, a sound study of the effects of various fiscal policy measures on the control of inflation is necessary in the bid to determine the appropriate policy mix required for dealing with the problem.
Structural Model for the Analysis of ‘The Impacts of Import Tariff Changes on Domestic Industrial Production’ in Nigeria (Published)
This study has investigated the ability of import tariff changes to match the relationship between import tariff changes and domestic industrial production in Nigeria. The study used a Static Computable General Equilibrium model of an archetype country to run simulations that indicate the nature of the static effects of import tariff changes on Nigeria. This study identifies four different scenarios to investigate the impacts of the changes in the import tariff rates on domestic industrial production in Nigeria. Scenarios try to get macroeconomic and welfare variables changes after the tariff rate changes compared to the base case scenario 2019 in which the benchmark equilibrium parameters are calibrated. The results shows that the growth of domestic industrial production have direct relationships with import tariff changes. That is, import tariff increase will provide increases in domestic industrial production. On the basis of our findings, this study recommends that, economic policies aiming to establish a level of import substitution seems to be more favourable in Nigeria, therefore, they should be encouraged. Also, a coordinated interplay of monetary and fiscal policies will be required to minimise contemporaneous distortions that arise from trade restrictions.
Moderating Role of Financial Development on the Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Economic Development of Nigeria (Published)
This study examined the moderating role of financial development on relationship between direct tax revenue and economic development in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to investigate the relationship between personal income tax, company income tax and petroleum profit tax on human development index and per capita income and the moderating effect of financial development on direct taxes and economic development of Nigeria. The study anchored on benefit theory of taxation while correlational and ex-post facto research designs were adopted for the study. The population of the study was direct taxes revenue data and economic development in Nigeria from 1991 to 2020 and secondary data were sourced from Annual statistical bulletin of CBN, Federal Inland Revenue service (FIRS) and National Bureau of Statistics. The secondary data were analysed using univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis. The result of the multiple regression shows that personal income tax, company income tax and petroleum profit tax positively and significantly influence economic development in Nigeria. Also, financial development positively and significantly moderates the relationship between direct taxes and economic development. Consequently, the study concludes that the level of financial development affects the revenue generation potentials through direct taxes for the economic development of Nigeria. Hence, the study recommends among others that government parastatals, multinationals, conglomerates and companies in the country should not engage any vendor who does not have a TIN number. This will go a long way in reducing tax evasion; taxes should be remitted via an e-payment system or via direct payment to the various tax authorities’ accounts.
Predictors of Public Acceptance of Family Planning Programme in a Typical Sub-Saharan African Context (Published)
This study focuses on the public acceptance of family planning programme in Nigeria. There exist scanty empirical studies on family planning programme public acceptance from the social marketing view. In order to fill the literature gap, predictors of public acceptance of family planning programme were investigated. The research design for this study was survey design and the unit of analysis comprised child-bearing Nigerians in Enugu State, Nigeria. Child-bearing Nigerians are those Nigerians that are still having children and have the tendency of giving birth to more children. Quota sampling technique was adopted and the sample size was 246 respondents which was determined using Cochran’s formula (since the study population is infinite). Data were collected through a structured questionnaire and multiple regressions were used to test the hypothesized relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. From the result findings, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefit, perceived barrier, and self-efficacy are the major predicting factors of public acceptance of family planning programme among child-bearing Nigerians. In conclusion, this study has identified major predicting factors of public acceptance of family planning programme in Nigeria. Also, it has provided an empirical support that perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived barrier, perceived benefit and self-efficacy have significant and positive effect on the public acceptance of family planning programme. We recommend that health and social policy makers in Nigeria should sensitize the child-bearing parents in the rural areas about the essence of family planning programme and make available social marketers and entrepreneur that will help do an awareness campaign rigorously.
The rate of savings in Nigeria has been low over the years. Despite efforts to stimulate savings through the adoption and implementation of financial liberalization policies, the rate of savings in the country has remained low in absolute and comparative terms. Previous studies on the determinants of savings in the country focused mainly on the association between savings and financial liberalization [(Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Broad Money Supply (BMS) and Deposit interest Rate (DPR)], paying scant attention to institutions [(Rule of Law (RUL), Control of Corruption (COC), Political Stability and absence of violence/terrorism (POS), Regulatory Quality (RGQ), Voice and Accountability (VAC) and Government Effectiveness (GEF)]. This study therefore examined the effect of financial liberalization and institutions on Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) in Nigeria. The study adopted ex-post facto design. Annual data from 1996 to 2020 on Nigeria was sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI, 2020) and World Governance Indicators (WDI, 2020). Data was analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The study adopted the 5% level of significance. Findings of the study revealed that GDP, DPR and BMS had positive and insignificant effect on GDS in Nigeria. The findings also showed that institutions was correlated with GDS in Nigeria. The study concluded that the effect of financial liberalization on savings in Nigeria improved when it was moderated with institutions. The study recommended that the country should strengthen its institutions by controlling corruption and ensuring political stability and regulatory quality to boost its savings.
Implications of Import Tariff Changes on Household Welfare in Nigeria: A CGE Model Approach (Published)
This study investigated the effects of import tariff changes on the household welfare in Nigeria. Methodologically, the study used a static CGE model to run simulations that indicate the nature of the static effects. In the simulations, the study identifies four different scenarios to investigate the impacts of the changes in the import tariff rates. Scenario 1 & 2 focus on tariff rates reductions, whiles scenarios 3 & 4 test the effects of the increase in import tariff rates on household welfare and compared to the base case scenario 2019 in which the benchmark equilibrium parameters are calibrated. The results show that household income and consumption volume have inverse relationships with import tariff changes. The findings obtained from the model suggest that import tariff increase will provide rise in general price level. But household welfare should be a priority of government complementary policy help, therefore social protection policy should put in place for any upward rise of tariff rate.
Foreign Trade and External Reserves in Nigeria (Published)
This study empirically examined the effect of foreign trade and external reserves in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to; examine the impact of oil import, non-oil import, oil export, non-oil export and exchange rate on external reserves in Nigeria. Time series data from 1980 to 2019 was collected from CBN statistical bulletin. The study employed the techniques of ADF unit root test, co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the estimated model showed that all the time series were stationary at order one. Also, the model depicted by the co-integration result showed that there is a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Similarly, the vector error correction result showed that the coefficient of ECM has the hypothesized negative sign and statistically significant at 5% level. Furthermore, the Vector Error Correction result revealed that oil and non-oil exports impacted positively on external reserves although the impact of non-oil export was insignificant while oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate had significant negative impact on external reserves in Nigeria. Specifically, oil export, oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate were significant at 5 percent. This implies that they impacted significantly on external reserves in Nigeria during the period covered by the study. In addition, the granger causality test revealed that oil export had a uni-directional causal relationship with external reserve while there was a bi-directional relationship between exchange rate and external reserve. Based on these findings, the study recommended amongst others the diversification of the export base of the nation as a possible measure of improving external reserves in Nigeria. Also, the study suggests that importations be discouraged especially for commoditites that can be produced locally. Finally, the study recommends that the CBN as the custodian of Nigeria’s foreign reserves, stabilize the value of local currency taking into cognizance the external shocks that stem from exchange rate volatilities.
Personal Factors and Satellite Television Choice Behaviour in a Typical Emerging Economy (Published)
This study focuses on the nexus between personal factors and satellite television choice behavior in a typical emerging market like Nigeria. Empirical investigation that examines the nexus between personal factors and satellite television choice in a typical emerging market like the south-west Nigeria is highly under-reported hence, this study aimed at filling this gap in literature. In order to achieve this, descriptive survey was adopted while the study population comprised active subscribers of some selected satellite television providers in South-west Nigeria. Stratified sampling was employed as the sampling technique while questionnaire was the research instrument. Multiple regression was used to test the hypothesized relationship between the variables of study. It was revealed that economic status, personality and lifestyle have positive and significant effect on the choice of satellite television. However, family life cycle stage did not have a significant effect on the choice of satellite television. It was concluded that this study provided empirical evidences that support the necessity of personal factors in the course of chosen satellite television in a typical emerging market. It was recommended among others that the satellite television marketers should strongly consider the personal factors of the actual and potential subscribers in the process of designing their market offerings.
Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Manufacturing performance in Nigeria (1981 – 2018) (Published)
Theoretically, and indeed empirically it has been postulated that Exchange Rate fluctuations has had a significant effect on manufacturing performance in terms of output growth and contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study aimed to examine the Exchange Rate fluctuations on manufacturing performance in Nigeria over a period of 37 years (from 1981-2018), using annual data obtained from collected from CBN, NBS and Index Mundi Nigeria. An ARDL approach was used for the analysis. The empirical results of the study shows that an exchange rate volatility has negatively affect the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector as can be seen from the from the respective coefficients of the estimated variables, , the long run relationship analysis and the causal relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. The study recommends encouraging and improving exchange rate stability in Nigeria as this may help improve the capacity of the country’s manufacturing sector, hence expand its contribution to GDP growth.
The study examined the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria; for the period 1990-2017. Secondary data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Gross Domestic Product as proxy for economic growth and employed as the dependent variable; whereas, monetary policy rate, liquidity rate and Treasury Bills respectively were used as the explanatory variables to measure monetary policy. Hypotheses formulated were tested using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study revealed a significant impact of Treasury Bills on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Liquidity ratio had a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Monetary policy rate had a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The coefficient of determination indicated that about 62% of the variations in private sector of the economy can be explained by changes in monetary policy variables. The study concluded that monetary policy had impacted significantly on private sector growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that policy makers should strong economic policies that will maintain and stabilize the economy. CBN should lay down strict prudential guidelines to stabilize and strengthen the economy. The CBN should review the Monetary Policy Rate downwards so as to reduce the cost of credit and increase the flow of investible funds to the economy.