The Dynamic Impact of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Sudan: A Vector Autoregression Analysis (Published)
The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic effect of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Sudan by utilizing annual time series data spanning the period 1971- 2015. After identifying the series order of stationarity by utilizing ADF and PP unit root tests, this study makes use of a ARDL and VAR model. The reason is that ARDL is preferable method since it incorporates both short and long run in its specification and can be used even when there is a mixed integration order. A VAR is the powerful in variance decomposition and the possibility of observing long run forecast in addition to the dynamic response to shocks.the findings indicate long run relationship among the variables of interest. Particularly, the results disclose that energy consumption and CO2 emissions exert positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. The causality analysis of the gradual shift indicates a uni-directional relationship running from energy consumption to economic growth. The test results support energy-induced growth hypothesis, which reveals that energy use impact greatly on economic growth and energy saving and/or energy shocks negatively affect economic growth. This means that Sudan’s economy is energy-driven and cannot embark or initiate conservative energy policies and strategies compromising economic growth. with the emergence of energy supply and global warming issues and their conceivable consequences on economic performance, investigating their interrelations is thus essential, which has been neglected baselessly in the literature especially in the case of Sudan.
Keywords: ARDL, CO2, GDP, Sudan, VAR, and energy consumption
Economic Growth beyond Structural Transformation in Tanzania: Small and Vulnerable Economy (Published)
War against three development archenemies (ignorance, poverty and disease) started in 1961. Enormous efforts have been underway in different phases with different objectives. Tanzania Development Vision (TDV-2025) came up with the goal of transforming the nation in to semi-industrial or middle income nation. This paper investigates economic growth beyond structure changes to analyse nexus between structure transformation and productive sector during growth process. The study found that despite of up-haphazard structure changes there is direct connection between structure changes and economic growth. Statistics shows that 1% change in the primary, secondary, high school, vocational/college and university create a change of 33.5%, 1.9%, 27.1%, 0.1% and 23.9% to the employment respectively. Similarly, 1% change in employment in agriculture, industry and service sector create change of 9.8%, 0.06% and 2.5% to the GDP respectively. Means, education is the determinant of changes in the employment while employment determines changes in the GDP
Keywords: GDP, Inclusive Growth, Structure Transformation, Tanzania
PUBLIC INVESTMENT STATUS IN BANGLADESH (Published)
This paper endeavors to formally establish a link between public investment and economic growth. Public investment is one of the key factors of economic development. It is often seen as important ingredient for economic growth in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of public investment on economic growth in Bangladesh. I also examine the public investment of Bangladesh. We consider ADP is the main proxy for public investment in Bangladesh. We also consider the gross capital formation for more reliable results. In our country, ADP traditionally holds the central place in our national economic planning. ADP regularly promotes economic growth, ensures infrastructural development, reduces poverty and improves the environment. The link among GDP, PI and GCF are analyzed by our regression model. From our study, we have seen that PI has positive effects on GDP in Bangladesh. So, in the light of that result, increases in public investment should have a positive net impact on economic growth which augments our economic development in future. This thesis concludes with a number of policy recommendations arising from the research findings.
Keywords: ADP, GCF, GDP, Public Investment, economic growth
ECONOMIC GROWTH BEYOND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN TANZANIA- SMALL AND VULNERABLE ECONOMY (Published)
War against three development archenemies (ignorance, poverty and disease) started in 1961. Since then enormous efforts have been underway in different phases with different objectives. Recently, Tanzania Development Vision (TDV-2025) set the goal of transforming the nation in to semi-industrial or middle income nation. This paper investigates economic growth beyond structure changes to analyse nexus between structure transformation and productive sector during growth process. The study found that despite of up-haphazard structure changes there is direct connection between structure changes and economic growth. Statistics shows that 1% change in the primary, secondary, high school, vocational/college and university create a change of 33.5%, 1.9%, 27.1%, 0.1% and 23.9% to the employment respectively. Similarly, 1% change in employment in agriculture, industry and service sector create change of 9.8%, 0.06% and 2.5% to the GDP respectively. Therefore, education is the determinant of changes in the employment while employment determines changes in the GDP.
Keywords: GDP, Inclusive Growth, Structure Transformation, Tanzania