Evaluating the Nexus between Macroeconomic Indicators and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria (Published)
This study examines the effect of macroeconomic indicators on stock market performance in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022 using time series data analysis. The analysis includes unit root tests, co-integration tests, and error correction model analysis to understand the long-term and short-term dynamics between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance. Various diagnostic tests, such as tests for autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity, were conducted to enhance the accuracy of the model. The results indicate a strong positive relationship between stock market performance and lagged values of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Inflation Rate (INF) in the long run. Economic growth, as indicated by GDP, and inflation rates play significant roles in driving stock market movements in Nigeria. Conversely, there is a negative relationship between stock market performance and lagged values of equity (EQUI) and interest rate (INTR), suggesting that changes in equity and interest rates may not have a long-term influence on stock market performance. The short-run analysis reveals short-term momentum in stock market performance, with past stock market returns and inflation rates positively affecting current stock market performance. However, variables like GDP, equities, exchange rates, and interest rates do not show significant short-term effects on stock market performance, indicating their impact may be more pronounced in the long run. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors seeking to understand the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and stock market movements in Nigeria.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation, Macroeconomic Variables, stock market performance
Impact of Fiscal Policy Measures on the Control of Inflation in Nigeria (Published)
Fiscal policy is one of the public sector tools used in the pursuit of these macro-economic goals. Fiscal policy could then be said to be an embodiment of all government plans aimed at achieving desired macro-economic goals, without directly altering the level of money supply. Nigeria, like most other Third World Countries, is committed to the achievement of a range of economic objectives such as high level of employment, rapid economic development, equitable distributions as well as reasonable price stability. However, the problem of rising prices has been particularly acute in recent years and has not responded to monetary and fiscal measures. In particular, it is becoming increasingly evident that we cannot count on maintaining the desirable level of economic development and simultaneously achieving reasonable price stability (Tomori, S., 1982). It is in realization of this fact that emphasis is on highlighting the various fiscal policy measures with respect to the problem of inflation. Furthermore, a sound study of the effects of various fiscal policy measures on the control of inflation is necessary in the bid to determine the appropriate policy mix required for dealing with the problem.
Keywords: Control, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Measures, Nigeria
Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth: Evidence from the VAR Model Approach for the Economy of Iraq. (Published)
This study investigates the impact of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of Iraq. Considering the fact that the majority of the studies on the Phillips Curve have been done in the context of developed economies and on an aggregate level, this study focuses on Iraq, a single developing economy (a disaggregated level) and aims to empirically analyse the impact of Unemployment and inflation on economic growth in the economy of Iraq. The research results indicate that there exist an equilibrium impact between unemployment and inflation in Iraq thereby supporting the validity of the Phillips Curve hypothesis
Keywords: Inflation, Iraq, Philips Curve, Unemployment, VAR Approach, economic growth
QUANTITATIVE ANALSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE ENTERPRISES ON THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY: (1993-2011). (Published)
This study is on the quantitative impact of Small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) on Nigeria’s economic growth performance for the sample period 1993 to 2011. The econometric technique adopted for the study was multiple regression method based on ordinary least squares technique. However, in order to avoid the incidence of spurious estimates, evidence from the ADF test conducted revealed that the variables are integrated of order two,1(2). The Johansen test conducted showed evidence of long run equilibrium relationship between small and medium scale enterprises and economic growth. However, in the mean time, output of SMEs (SMEO) does not make any significant contribution to Nigeria’s economic growth performance. The study concludes that poor government policies, on tariffs and incentives, bribery and corruption, non-existent entrepreneurial development centers and poor state of infrastructure act as impediments to the growth and development of SMEs in Nigeria. The recommendations are that governments at all levels should endeavor to establish Microfinance institutions for easy access to credit by SMEs, introduce financial literacy in schools, establish entrepreneurial development centers for capacity building, provide enough infrastructure, especially electricity and road net work, and finally establish agencies for control of bribery and corruption.
Keywords: Bank credit, Inflation, Interest rates., Small and Medium Enterprises, economic growth
QUANTITATIVE ANALSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE ENTERPRISES ON THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY: (1993-2011). (Review Completed - Accepted)
This study is on the quantitative impact of Small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) on Nigeria’s economic growth performance for the sample period 1993 to 2011. The econometric technique adopted for the study was multiple regression method based on ordinary least squares technique. However, in order to avoid the incidence of spurious estimates, evidence from the ADF test conducted revealed that the variables are integrated of order two,1(2). The Johansen test conducted showed evidence of long run equilibrium relationship between small and medium scale enterprises and economic growth. However, in the mean time, output of SMEs (SMEO) does not make any significant contribution to Nigeria’s economic growth performance. The study concludes that poor government policies, on tariffs and incentives, bribery and corruption, non-existent entrepreneurial development centers and poor state of infrastructure act as impediments to the growth and development of SMEs in Nigeria. The recommendations are that governments at all levels should endeavor to establish Microfinance institutions for easy access to credit by SMEs, introduce financial literacy in schools, establish entrepreneurial development centers for capacity building, provide enough infrastructure, especially electricity and road net work, and finally establish agencies for control of bribery and corruption.
Keywords: Bank credit, Inflation, Interest rates., Small and Medium Enterprises, economic growth