Nigeria

Foreign Aid, Aid-Institutional Quality Interaction and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Nigeria (Published)

The study examined the effect of foreign aid and aid-institutional quality interaction on economic growth in Nigeria for the period (1981 – 2022) using FMOLS method. The result of the study shows that foreign aid (ODA) exerted positive but insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria, indicating that ODA is relevant to Nigeria’s economic growth but is not among the major drivers of economic growth in Nigeria. The aid-institutional quality interaction variable, the ODA interaction with corruption index (ODA*CPI), showed negative relationship with economic growth which suggests that weak institution, especially corruption, had constrained the positive effect of ODA on economic growth in Nigeria. The ODA absorptive capacity constraint (ODA²) had a negative and significant impact on economic growth which suggests the existence of inverted U-shape relationship between ODA and economic growth. The negative coefficient of absorptive capacity constraint of ODA shows that there is a critical level which beyond, further increase in ODA will impede economic growth. As for other variables, labour force (L), domestic capital (K), crude oil price (COP), financial deepening (FDP) and trade openness (TOP) had positive and significant relationship with economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The coefficient of foreign direct investment (FDI) had a negative sign, implying that FDI had a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is recommended that there should be prudent utilization of ODA received, better and effective macroeconomic policies, improvement in the quality of governance and strengthening of relevant institutions to abate the problem of pervasive corruption in the country. Finally, aid fungibility should be avoided.

Keywords: Nigeria, economic growth, foreign aid, institutional quality

Online Service Environment and Customer Engagement among Shoppers of Local Online Shops in a Typical Emerging Economy (Published)

This study centers on the nexus between online service environment and customer engagement among shoppers in local online shops in a typical emerging economy. Despite the abundance of extant literature on online service environment and; customer engagement behaviour, empirical studies that investigates the nexus between online service environment and customer engagement in local online shops is scarcely-reported and under-researched especially in a typical emerging economy like Nigeria. In order to fill this research gap, this study examines the effect of online service environment on customer engagement.  Quantitative research design was employed and the study population comprised active online shoppers on JUMIA platform. A total of 520 shoppers were statistically drawn from the population of 12.8 million online shoppers. The research instrument was structured questionnaire and hypotheses formulated were tested using multiple regressions. It was found that layout and functionality, security, aesthetic appeal and order delivery system have positive and significant effect on customer engagement in local online shops in Nigeria. It was concluded that this study provides empirical support that online service environment has positive and significant effect on customer engagement among shoppers in local online shops in Nigeria. It was recommended that online shops/service providers should evaluate and ensure their order delivery system is designed toward customer orientation and satisfaction by ensuring charges on order delivery are low, free for some products, and discounted for customers who eventually paid for the orders; online shops should evaluate and ensure the online service environment has a very good layout, and the layout is functioning by ensuring that navigational aids on their website are   clear, readily available, easy to read, logical links, and user-friendly amongst others. 

Keywords: Emerging Economy, Nigeria, customer engagement, online service environment

Climate Change and Food Price Inflation: Evidence from Nigeria (Published)

This paper focuses on precipitation anomaly as a proxy for climate change to investigate how climate change affects food price inflation in Nigeria. An ARDL model was employed to entangle and quantify drivers behind the relationship between precipitation anomaly and food price inflation. The result shows that a 1 per cent increase in precipitation anomaly implies an increase of 0.58 per cent in food inflation in the short run. At the same time, an increase of 1 per cent precipitation anomaly implies an increase of 0.11 per cent in food inflation in the long run. This means that precipitation anomaly pushes food prices upward, which affects inflationary trend in general and monetary policy effectiveness. To keep inflation under target, policy incentive towards adaptation and mitigation of climate change should be rolled out to tame climate-induced food price inflation in both long run and short run. Additionally, policy makers ought to gauge  climate perception of economic agents in anchoring inflation expectation. This is in additional to monetary policy mechanism which ought  to be sensitive to precipitation anomalies and other climate related shocks and risks as they affect  the primary mandate of ensuring price stability.

 

Keywords: Climate Change, Food, Nigeria, price inflation

Fiscal Deficit, Institutional Quality and Economic Performance in Nigeria (1987-2022) (Published)

Nigeria continues to face high fiscal deficits, low institutional quality, and sluggish economic growth despite numerous efforts to enhance economic performance. While extensive research has focused on the impact of fiscal deficits on economic performance, limited attention has been given to the combined effects of fiscal deficits and institutional quality in the Nigerian context. This study investigates how fiscal deficits, institutional quality, and their interaction influence Nigeria’s economic performance from 1987 to 2022. Using GDP growth rate as a measure of economic performance, the analysis incorporates fiscal deficit, institutional quality as the independent variables and includes interest rate, inflation rate, and gross fixed capital formation as control variables. Preliminary unit root tests confirmed that the variables were integrated at orders zero and one, making them suitable for the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation approach. The results at a 5% significance level revealed that, in the long run, fiscal deficits negatively but insignificantly impacted economic performance. Similarly, in the long run, institutional quality also negatively but significantly influenced economic performance. The interactive effect of fiscal deficits and institutional quality on economic performance was negative and insignificant in both the short and long run. Diagnostic residual tests confirmed the model’s reliability. The study concluded that fiscal deficits and institutional quality, both independently and interactively, do not significantly drive economic performance in Nigeria. The study recommended targeted reforms to address fiscal deficits and institutional quality separately, alongside other macroeconomic strategies, to advance Nigeria’s economic performance.

 

Keywords: Economic Performance, Nigeria, fiscal deficit, institutional quality

Export Trade and Output Performance: Evidence from Nigeria (Published)

The study examined the impact of export trade on economic performance in Nigeria, from 1986 to 2022. The variables used in this study comprised of real gross domestic product as a dependent variable, while oil exports, non-oil exports, exchange rate and trade openness are the explanatory variables. The employed variables have different order of integration ranging from zero and one, which led to the application of auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the method of analysis. The ARDL model investigated long-run and short-run interactions among the variables. The results showed evidence of co-integrating equations amongst the variables. Hence, it was found that oil exports have significant positive impact on economic performance in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. Non-oil exports exerted positive and significant influence on economic performance in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. Based on the findings, the study recommended that Nigerian government should make judicious use of proceeds from export of crude oil to diversify other productive sectors of the economy. Again, the activities of non-oil sectors like agriculture, industry, etc., should be stimulated to enhance non-oil exports in Nigeria.

Keywords: Exports, Nigeria, Non-Oil Export, oil export, output performance

The Impact of Manufacturing Output On Employment in Nigeria (Published)

Nigeria has lower manufacturing employment than other industries for several reasons, including it share to Gross domestic product. Nigeria’s manufacturing sector contributes less than 10 percent of the nation’s GDP. This suggests that the sector’s overall economic production is weak, which may restrict its ability to provide job opportunities to the teeming populace. This study investigates the impact of manufacturing output on employment in Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique was used to establish the long run relationship among the variables. It was revealed that long run relationship exists among the variables in the estimated model. The results of the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) within the framework of the ARDL shows that the development of the manufacturing sector is one of the key strategies for the creation of employment opportunities in Nigeria. The study recommends; the development and diversification of the manufacturing sector as one of its top long-term policy strategies for the creation of employment for Nigerians. It also suggests that policies aimed at attracting foreign investment in this sector could positively impact on employment generation. This can be accomplished by providing incentives to the operators of the manufacturing sector, such as import waivers on essential imported inputs, providing and guaranteeing large commercial trading businesses to enter the manufacturing of their products through licensing, facilitating and acting as surety in franchise agreements with foreign manufacturers, and any other incentive to help lower the manufacturing sector’s cost of production. Hence, the government must prioritize the development of the manufacturing sector by providing necessary support and incentives to attract more investors and increase local production, which will lead to job creation and economic growth for Nigerians.

Keywords: ARDL, Employment, GDP, Nigeria, manufacturing output

Impact of Fiscal Policy Measures on the Control of Inflation in Nigeria (Published)

Fiscal policy is one of the public sector tools used in the pursuit of these macro-economic goals. Fiscal policy could then be said to be an embodiment of all government plans aimed at achieving desired macro-economic goals, without directly altering the level of money supply. Nigeria, like most other Third World Countries, is committed to the achievement of a range of economic objectives such as high level of employment, rapid economic development, equitable distributions as well as reasonable price stability. However, the problem of rising prices has been particularly acute in recent years and has not responded to monetary and fiscal measures. In particular, it is becoming increasingly evident that we cannot count on maintaining the desirable level of economic development and simultaneously achieving reasonable price stability (Tomori, S., 1982). It is in realization of this fact that emphasis is on highlighting the various fiscal policy measures with respect to the problem of inflation. Furthermore, a sound study of the effects of various fiscal policy measures on the control of inflation is necessary in the bid to determine the appropriate policy mix required for dealing with the problem.

 

Keywords: Control, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Measures, Nigeria

Structural Model for the Analysis of ‘The Impacts of Import Tariff Changes on Domestic Industrial Production’ in Nigeria (Published)

This study has investigated the ability of import tariff changes to match the relationship between import tariff changes and domestic industrial production in Nigeria. The study used a Static Computable General Equilibrium model of an archetype country to run simulations that indicate the nature of the static effects of import tariff changes on Nigeria. This study identifies four different scenarios to investigate the impacts of the changes in the import tariff rates on domestic industrial production in Nigeria. Scenarios try to get macroeconomic and welfare variables changes after the tariff rate changes compared to the base case scenario 2019 in which the benchmark equilibrium parameters are calibrated. The results shows that the growth of domestic industrial production have direct relationships with import tariff changes. That is, import tariff increase will provide increases in domestic industrial production. On the basis of our findings, this study recommends that, economic policies aiming to establish a level of import substitution seems to be more favourable in Nigeria, therefore, they should be encouraged. Also, a coordinated interplay of monetary and fiscal policies will be required to minimise contemporaneous distortions that arise from trade restrictions.

Keywords: CGE model, Nigeria, domestic industrial production, tariff changes

Moderating Role of Financial Development on the Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Economic Development of Nigeria (Published)

This study examined the moderating role of financial development on relationship between direct tax revenue and economic development in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to investigate the relationship between personal income tax, company income tax and petroleum profit tax on human development index and per capita income and the moderating effect of financial development on direct taxes and economic development of Nigeria. The study anchored on benefit theory of taxation while correlational and ex-post facto research designs were adopted for the study. The population of the study was direct taxes revenue data and economic development in Nigeria from 1991 to 2020 and secondary data were sourced from Annual statistical bulletin of CBN, Federal Inland Revenue service (FIRS) and National Bureau of Statistics. The secondary data were analysed using univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis. The result of the multiple regression shows that personal income tax, company income tax and petroleum profit tax positively and significantly influence economic development in Nigeria. Also, financial development positively and significantly moderates the relationship between direct taxes and economic development. Consequently, the study concludes that the level of financial development affects the revenue generation potentials through direct taxes for the economic development of Nigeria. Hence, the study recommends among others that government parastatals, multinationals, conglomerates and companies in the country should not engage any vendor who does not have a TIN number. This will go a long way in reducing tax evasion; taxes should be remitted via an e-payment system or via direct payment to the various tax authorities’ accounts.

Keywords: : Financial development, Direct Taxes, Economic Development, Nigeria

Predictors of Public Acceptance of Family Planning Programme in a Typical Sub-Saharan African Context (Published)

This study focuses on the public acceptance of family planning programme in Nigeria. There exist scanty empirical studies on family planning programme public acceptance from the social marketing view. In order to fill the literature gap, predictors of public acceptance of family planning programme were investigated. The research design for this study was survey design and the unit of analysis comprised child-bearing Nigerians in Enugu State, Nigeria. Child-bearing Nigerians are those Nigerians that are still having children and have the tendency of giving birth to more children. Quota sampling technique was adopted and the sample size was 246 respondents which was determined using Cochran’s formula (since the study population is infinite). Data were collected through a structured questionnaire and multiple regressions were used to test the hypothesized relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. From the result findings, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefit, perceived barrier, and self-efficacy are the major predicting factors of public acceptance of family planning programme among child-bearing Nigerians. In conclusion, this study has identified major predicting factors of public acceptance of family planning programme in Nigeria. Also, it has provided an empirical support that perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived barrier, perceived benefit and self-efficacy have significant and positive effect on the public acceptance of family planning programme. We recommend that health and social policy makers in Nigeria should sensitize the child-bearing parents in the rural areas about the essence of family planning programme and make available social marketers and entrepreneur that will help do an awareness campaign rigorously.

Keywords: Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa, family planning programme, public acceptance