Effect 0f Deficit Budget Financing Sources on Inflation Rate in Nigeria (Published)
The study examined the effect of deficit budget financing sources on inflation rate in Nigeria. External debt, Ways and Means Advances, and Treasury Bills were the independent variables of the study, while inflation rate was the dependent variable. The study adopted an ex-post-facto research design, covering the period between 2011 and 2020. Secondary data were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Ordinary Least Square multiple regression technique was used for the data analysis. In line with the specific objectives of the study which is to ascertain the effect of external debt, ways and means advances, and treasury bills on inflation rate in Nigeria, it was revealed that external debt and treasury bills have a significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria. Ways and means advances have a positive and significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria. This implies that among the explanatory variables, ways and means advances is the major determinant of inflation rate in Nigeria. The study recommended therefore that government policies on inflation rate should factor in external debts because of their negative effect on inflation rate. external borrowing should be prudently used in productive activities that can raise investments, reduced inflation and improve the country’s exchange rate. The Government should drastically reduce the rate they borrow from CBN. Any of such borrowing should be targeted towards developing the economy and they should always maintain the credit limit set by the CBN. The government should reduce the number of treasury bills issued to the general populace. Other sources of deficit budget funding, such as privatization of obsolete government institutions, should be considered by the government.
Keywords: External Debt, Inflation Rate, Nigeria, Treasury Bills, ways and means advances
An Empirical Analysis of National Debt, Debt Servicing and the Growth of the Nigerian Economy (Published)
Nigeria’s national debt and debt servicing expenditure has been on the increase since from 1981 till date, this has prompted the researchers to study the impact and economic implications of this rise in debt and debt servicing profile on the growth of the Nigerian economy. The study adopted annual debt stock, debt service expenditure and the control variables of exchange rate and inflation rate as the independent parameters which were regression against gross domestic product as proxy for the growth of the Nigerian economy and response variable. Secondary data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Debt Management Office for the ranging from 1981 to 2019. The study employed multiple regression techniques assisted by the E-views computer software for the analysis of data. The results revealed that annual national debt and exchange rate had significant impact on the growth of the Nigerian economy with a P-value of 0.0180 and 0.0070 respectively which were less than the 0.05 level of significance. Debt servicing and inflation rate had no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria with a P-value of 0.1054 and 0.5011 respectively. In the overall, the results of the model indicated that debt and debt servicing had statistically significant effect on economic growth with overall probability of F-statistics value of 0.050683 which less than the 0.05 significance level. Based on the findings the study recommended that the monetary authorities should put in place appropriate steps to properly manage the Nation’s debt stock and the cost of servicing debt; and that the country’s borrowings should be invested on viable capital projects as well as human capital that will yield economic returns.
Keywords: Debt, Debt Servicing, Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation Rate
Currency devaluation and Non-Oil export of Nigeria: 1986-2018 (Published)
The paper examined the effect of currency devaluation on the Non-oil export of Nigeria. The study covered the period of 1986 to 2018. Secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of various issues. Independent variables include: Inflation Rate (INFR), Exchange Rate (EXR), and Money Supply (MS) while Non-Oil Export (NOE) represented the dependent indicator. Ordinary Least Square Regression Model was used to analyze the short run relationship between variables used for the study. The variables were also subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip Perron Unit Root test, Johansen Co-integration and Granger Causality Tests was adopted to analyze the effect of currency devaluation on non-oil export in Nigeria. The result showed that EXR had a negative significant effect while MS had positive significant influence on non-oil export but INFR had negative but insignificant relationship on the dependent variable in Nigeria hence devaluation of currency influenced non-oil export in Nigeria negatively. The Nigerian Government needs to increase its competitive chances by either revaluating its currency or banning importation of some items produced locally to boost the domestic economy. The study provides the extent at which the devaluation of currency influences the non-oil export in Nigeria.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Money Supply, Non-Oil Export
IMPACT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (2000-2009) (Published)
The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the existence of a relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. The methodology employed in this study is the quantitative research design. Consumer price index (CPI) was used as a proxy for inflation and the GDP as proxy for economic growth, to examine the relationship. The scope of the study spanned from 2000 to 2009. Ordinary least square method and t-test was used to test the variables most likely to impact on economic growth in Nigeria due to inflation. The findings also shows that there is strong relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria, that exchange rate has positive impact on economic growth and that high interest rate discourages investment and hence forestalls economic growth. It is therefore, recommended that the monetary policies aimed at exchange rate be strengthened through effective supervision and regulatory framework of financial system by the monetary framework of financial system by the monetary authorities. Continuous monetary policies that will achieve the desired macroeconomic stability, increase in private sector credits and there is also need fro more effective management of interest rate in Nigeria
Keywords: Economic Stability., Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Monetary Authorities, economic growth