An Empirical Analysis of National Debt, Debt Servicing and the Growth of the Nigerian Economy (Published)
Nigeria’s national debt and debt servicing expenditure has been on the increase since from 1981 till date, this has prompted the researchers to study the impact and economic implications of this rise in debt and debt servicing profile on the growth of the Nigerian economy. The study adopted annual debt stock, debt service expenditure and the control variables of exchange rate and inflation rate as the independent parameters which were regression against gross domestic product as proxy for the growth of the Nigerian economy and response variable. Secondary data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Debt Management Office for the ranging from 1981 to 2019. The study employed multiple regression techniques assisted by the E-views computer software for the analysis of data. The results revealed that annual national debt and exchange rate had significant impact on the growth of the Nigerian economy with a P-value of 0.0180 and 0.0070 respectively which were less than the 0.05 level of significance. Debt servicing and inflation rate had no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria with a P-value of 0.1054 and 0.5011 respectively. In the overall, the results of the model indicated that debt and debt servicing had statistically significant effect on economic growth with overall probability of F-statistics value of 0.050683 which less than the 0.05 significance level. Based on the findings the study recommended that the monetary authorities should put in place appropriate steps to properly manage the Nation’s debt stock and the cost of servicing debt; and that the country’s borrowings should be invested on viable capital projects as well as human capital that will yield economic returns.
The Convergence Analysis of the Economic Growth of Asean+3 Countries and its Influencing Factors (Published)
ASEAN is a geo-political and economic organization which is established on August 8, 1967. The objectives of the establishment of ASEAN include accelerating the economic growth and the social progress of cultural and social in Southeast Asia area. it is known that the income of ASEAN + 3 member countries is still very unbalanced with the index rate of an average of 0.98 per year. However, when it is viewed from year to year during the estimation period, the value of the Williamson Index tends to decrease, although it is very low. This shows the tendency of the movement of economic growth is increasingly convergent with the decreasing inequality level. The results of the analysis through calculation of Williamson Index are also in accordance with the results of the analysis conducted by panel data method. The result of panel data analysis shows that there is conditional and unconditional convergence process of economic growth of ASEAN + 3 countries because the dependent variable lag coefficient of -0.1 and -0.2 is between -1 and 0.
The study examines the effect of petroleum profit tax on economic growth of Nigeria. Income from petroleum taxes is the proxy for PPT while economic growth was measured using Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The research adopted expos-facto research as secondary data were used for the analysis. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Federal Statistical Bureau. The study covered twelve year period (2004-2015). Time series data were analyzed using the simple linear regression. The results reveals that PPT had positive and significant effect on Nigerian GDP. The study recommends that the government should provide the necessary human and material infrastructures that are needed to support petroleum business so they can earn more income that will boost taxation.