Implications of Import Tariff Changes on Household Welfare in Nigeria: A CGE Model Approach (Published)
This study investigated the effects of import tariff changes on the household welfare in Nigeria. Methodologically, the study used a static CGE model to run simulations that indicate the nature of the static effects. In the simulations, the study identifies four different scenarios to investigate the impacts of the changes in the import tariff rates. Scenario 1 & 2 focus on tariff rates reductions, whiles scenarios 3 & 4 test the effects of the increase in import tariff rates on household welfare and compared to the base case scenario 2019 in which the benchmark equilibrium parameters are calibrated. The results show that household income and consumption volume have inverse relationships with import tariff changes. The findings obtained from the model suggest that import tariff increase will provide rise in general price level. But household welfare should be a priority of government complementary policy help, therefore social protection policy should put in place for any upward rise of tariff rate.
Keywords: CGE model, Nigeria, household welfare, tariff changes
Foreign Trade and External Reserves in Nigeria (Published)
This study empirically examined the effect of foreign trade and external reserves in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to; examine the impact of oil import, non-oil import, oil export, non-oil export and exchange rate on external reserves in Nigeria. Time series data from 1980 to 2019 was collected from CBN statistical bulletin. The study employed the techniques of ADF unit root test, co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the estimated model showed that all the time series were stationary at order one. Also, the model depicted by the co-integration result showed that there is a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Similarly, the vector error correction result showed that the coefficient of ECM has the hypothesized negative sign and statistically significant at 5% level. Furthermore, the Vector Error Correction result revealed that oil and non-oil exports impacted positively on external reserves although the impact of non-oil export was insignificant while oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate had significant negative impact on external reserves in Nigeria. Specifically, oil export, oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate were significant at 5 percent. This implies that they impacted significantly on external reserves in Nigeria during the period covered by the study. In addition, the granger causality test revealed that oil export had a uni-directional causal relationship with external reserve while there was a bi-directional relationship between exchange rate and external reserve. Based on these findings, the study recommended amongst others the diversification of the export base of the nation as a possible measure of improving external reserves in Nigeria. Also, the study suggests that importations be discouraged especially for commoditites that can be produced locally. Finally, the study recommends that the CBN as the custodian of Nigeria’s foreign reserves, stabilize the value of local currency taking into cognizance the external shocks that stem from exchange rate volatilities.
Keywords: Foreign Trade, Nigeria, VECM, external reserves
Personal Factors and Satellite Television Choice Behaviour in a Typical Emerging Economy (Published)
This study focuses on the nexus between personal factors and satellite television choice behavior in a typical emerging market like Nigeria. Empirical investigation that examines the nexus between personal factors and satellite television choice in a typical emerging market like the south-west Nigeria is highly under-reported hence, this study aimed at filling this gap in literature. In order to achieve this, descriptive survey was adopted while the study population comprised active subscribers of some selected satellite television providers in South-west Nigeria. Stratified sampling was employed as the sampling technique while questionnaire was the research instrument. Multiple regression was used to test the hypothesized relationship between the variables of study. It was revealed that economic status, personality and lifestyle have positive and significant effect on the choice of satellite television. However, family life cycle stage did not have a significant effect on the choice of satellite television. It was concluded that this study provided empirical evidences that support the necessity of personal factors in the course of chosen satellite television in a typical emerging market. It was recommended among others that the satellite television marketers should strongly consider the personal factors of the actual and potential subscribers in the process of designing their market offerings.
Keywords: Emerging Market, Lifestyle, Nigeria, Personality, choice behavior, economic status, family life cycle stage, personal factors, satellite television
Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Manufacturing performance in Nigeria (1981 – 2018) (Published)
Theoretically, and indeed empirically it has been postulated that Exchange Rate fluctuations has had a significant effect on manufacturing performance in terms of output growth and contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study aimed to examine the Exchange Rate fluctuations on manufacturing performance in Nigeria over a period of 37 years (from 1981-2018), using annual data obtained from collected from CBN, NBS and Index Mundi Nigeria. An ARDL approach was used for the analysis. The empirical results of the study shows that an exchange rate volatility has negatively affect the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector as can be seen from the from the respective coefficients of the estimated variables, , the long run relationship analysis and the causal relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. The study recommends encouraging and improving exchange rate stability in Nigeria as this may help improve the capacity of the country’s manufacturing sector, hence expand its contribution to GDP growth.
Keywords: Nigeria, ardl model, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuations, manufacturing performance
Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1990-2017) (Published)
The study examined the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria; for the period 1990-2017. Secondary data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Gross Domestic Product as proxy for economic growth and employed as the dependent variable; whereas, monetary policy rate, liquidity rate and Treasury Bills respectively were used as the explanatory variables to measure monetary policy. Hypotheses formulated were tested using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study revealed a significant impact of Treasury Bills on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Liquidity ratio had a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Monetary policy rate had a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The coefficient of determination indicated that about 62% of the variations in private sector of the economy can be explained by changes in monetary policy variables. The study concluded that monetary policy had impacted significantly on private sector growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that policy makers should strong economic policies that will maintain and stabilize the economy. CBN should lay down strict prudential guidelines to stabilize and strengthen the economy. The CBN should review the Monetary Policy Rate downwards so as to reduce the cost of credit and increase the flow of investible funds to the economy.
Keywords: Economic, Growth, Nigeria, Policy, monetary
Trilemma of Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Reforms in Nigeria (Published)
Motivated by lack of consensus on the empirical validity of the Mundell-Fleming trilemma and its development effects, this paper examines the relationship between the trilemma indexes (monetary autonomy, exchange rate stability and capital mobility) and structural reforms with a focus on manufacturing and service value added in Nigeria. The ADRL was applied in addition to other econometrics tools in analyzing the data sourced from various documentary sources. The ARDL bounds test results revealed that the variables are cointegrated. This necessitated the rejection of the null hypothesis of no long run relationship. The short run result shows that lag two of monetary autonomy and contemporaneous value of exchange rate stability have significant positive relationship with manufacturing value added. Manufacturing value added increases by 7.289 percent following a unit increase in monetary autonomy index. Similarly, a unit increase in exchange rate stability triggers 1.372 percent in manufacturing value added in the short run. The long run result revealed that monetary independence exerts significant positive influence on manufacturing whereas capital mobility is negatively related to manufacturing valued added in the long run. The result further indicates the long term effects of the trilemma indexes are statistically insignificant while that of foreign reserve accumulation is found to exert significant positive impact on service value added in the long run. This is a pointer that the policy makers in Nigeria have leveraged on external reserve build-up to buffer shocks in the service sector. On the basis of the findings, it is concluded that the manufacturing sector is the channel through which the policy trilemma drives the process of structural reforms in the Nigeria. Thus, policy makers in Nigeria should allow for more managed floating exchange rate regime and ensure appreciable independence in the monetary policy operation with a view to fostering the process of structural reforms in Nigeria.
Keywords: ARDL, Manufacturing Value Added, Nigeria, Trilemma indexes, service value added
Construction Externalities: A Theoretical Insightand the Nigerian Scenario (Published)
Very little is known about the subject of construction externalities, especially amongst stakeholders in the Nigerian construction industry and built environment, yet its existence and effects are palpable. Hence, the study, via relevant literature and personal observations sought to provide; first, a theoretical understanding of the nature of construction externalities; its constituents or composition as well as its effects, and secondly, to point out the level of awareness on the part of stakeholders and the manner or extent to which they have been addressed or considered in Nigeria. Ultimately, this paper presents as a solution to efficient and balanced allocation of resources, realistic taxation and better economic planning by the Nigerian government; the need to be apprised of the benefits and adverse effects of construction externalities on the citizenry.
Keywords: Built Environment, Construction Externalities, Construction Stakeholders, Economic Planning, Nigeria
INVESTIGATION INTO THE USE OF APPROPRIATE VALUES OF LIFE, IN TACKLING THE MULTIFARIOUS CHALLENGES OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF NIGERIA (Review Completed - Accepted)
This investigation is carried out as part of the effort to find solution to the multifarious challenges of the socio-economic environment of Nigeria. The investigation reveals that in virtually all the challenges, certain important values of life, are implicated in them. The most prominent of these values are those of individuals, the nation and to a smaller extent, the family. Communal values are not of much importance in the challenges of the socio-economic environment of Nigeria. The paper is advocating a rigorous pursuit of efforts to inculcate the important values in Nigerian people. It further advocates a determined effort at building a new generation of Nigerians, equipped with these values, right from the early stages of life.
Keywords: Challenges, Nigeria, Socio-Economic Environment, Values