An Exploration of Annual Budgets and GDP Trends of Kenya for the Period 2018-2023 (Published)
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the annual budgets and of gross domestic product (GDP) changes in Kenya over the last six years to identify and understand the economic trends and some factors that have influenced the growth and development of the country. Kenya is considered to be an emerging country in Africa and in the countries of the East African Community, of which it is a member. The study uses a quantitative technique to assess the annual budgets of Kenya, focusing primarily on revenue and expenditure, including some important areas such as infrastructure, health care, and education. It also examines the internal and external variables that influence the evolution of GDP and, finally, it identifies the financing mechanisms. The study revealed fluctuations in annual budgets and GDP over the last six years. But in general, increasing changes indicate a growing economy. The study recommends a genuine inclusive approach to budget preparation, evaluation of tax policies to create positive attitudes of citizens towards taxes, and improved debt management to reduce the risk of indebtedness.
Keywords: Budget, Debt, Gross Domestic Product, tax, trend
Financial Liberalization, Institutions and Savings in Nigeria (Published)
The rate of savings in Nigeria has been low over the years. Despite efforts to stimulate savings through the adoption and implementation of financial liberalization policies, the rate of savings in the country has remained low in absolute and comparative terms. Previous studies on the determinants of savings in the country focused mainly on the association between savings and financial liberalization [(Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Broad Money Supply (BMS) and Deposit interest Rate (DPR)], paying scant attention to institutions [(Rule of Law (RUL), Control of Corruption (COC), Political Stability and absence of violence/terrorism (POS), Regulatory Quality (RGQ), Voice and Accountability (VAC) and Government Effectiveness (GEF)]. This study therefore examined the effect of financial liberalization and institutions on Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) in Nigeria. The study adopted ex-post facto design. Annual data from 1996 to 2020 on Nigeria was sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI, 2020) and World Governance Indicators (WDI, 2020). Data was analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The study adopted the 5% level of significance. Findings of the study revealed that GDP, DPR and BMS had positive and insignificant effect on GDS in Nigeria. The findings also showed that institutions was correlated with GDS in Nigeria. The study concluded that the effect of financial liberalization on savings in Nigeria improved when it was moderated with institutions. The study recommended that the country should strengthen its institutions by controlling corruption and ensuring political stability and regulatory quality to boost its savings.
Keywords: Financial Liberalization, Gross Domestic Product, Institutions, Nigeria, gross domestic savings
Does Money Market Spur Economic Growth in Nigeria? Granger Causality Approach (Published)
This study examined the relationship between money market and economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted money market instruments such as treasury bills (TBs), commercial papers (CPs) and bankers’ acceptances (BAs) as proxy for money market (independent variables), and gross domestic product (GDP) as proxy for economic growth (the dependent variable). Secondary time series data for the variables were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 1989-2014. The study employed econometric techniques such as ADF, Unit Root Test, OLS, multiple regression and Granger Causality Test to analysed the study data; and found strong evidence that TBs, and CPs had positive and significant influence on GDP, while BAs had positive but insignificant influence on GDP in Nigeria. The granger causality test result revealed no directional causality relationship between TBs and GDP, meaning that TBs does not granger cause GDP and vice-versa. There was also no directional causality relationship between CPs and GDP, BAs and GDP. However, there exists bi-directional relationship running from CPs to TBs and BAs as it was established at 5 per cent level of significance. The study recommended among others that for the money market to influence meaningful economic growth and development in Nigeria, appropriate policies should be employed to strengthen and deepen the market.
Keywords: Bankers’ Acceptances, Commercial Papers, Gross Domestic Product, Money Market, Treasury Bills, economic growth