Fluctuating Exchange Rate and Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Time Series Assessment of Over Three Decades’ Experience Using Interest Rate and Inflation Rates as Control Variables (Published)
This study examined the empirical investigation of the effect of fluctuating exchange rate on Nigeria’s economy from 1986 to 2021. The specific objective is to determine the combined effects of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate on gross domestic product and the individual effect of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate on the gross domestic product. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics. The regression analysis to provide meaning to the research through which the following findings were made; this study depicts on exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate contribution to gross domestic product. The consequences of this examination have demonstrated that exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate are serious determinants of gross domestic product in the Nigerian Economic Growth. The factors (exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate) when presented synonymously, have performed well regarding economic growth. The finding suggested that exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate are determinants of gross domestic product. A practical assessment of these dimensions revealed that exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate were effectively stabilized and they will achieve a greater significant benefit in terms of gross domestic product. The result shows that, the higher stability of exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate the higher the possibility of gross domestic product of Nigeria, which will definitely have positive significant impact on economic growth of Nigeria.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Nigeria, economic growth, fluctuating exchange rate
Effect of Microfinance Banks’ Interest Rate on Loan Repayment Capability of Borrowers (Published)
This study examined how microfinance banks’ interest rate on loan affects repayment capability of borrowers in Lapo microfinance Bank. This study examined factors affecting loan repayment plan of borrowers; with a view on the impact of promptness of loan repayment on Micro Finance Insittution sMFI loans; and find out measurse put in place by MFsI to improve repayment plan of borrowers. Lapo Bank borrowers in Osun state branch participated in the study. A sum total of 110 customers of Lapo microfinance bank participated in the study. A structured questionnaire adapted from previous studies and grounded literature review was used in collecting data. Findings from the study showed that: there is significant effect of high interest rate of MFI on the repayment plans of borrowers’ loans, the frequency of loan repayment plan significantly has effect on borrowers’ ability to payback loan, there is significant difference in the perception of borrowers on effect of high interest rate of MFI on the repayment plans of borrowers’ loans based on gender and educational level. Also, the descriptive result showed that; Majority of the borrowers agreed that high interest rate affect loan repayment, it implied that Lapo and other microfinance bank interest rate on loan is higher compare to Deposit Money Banks. Majority of the participants believes that a single digit interest rate on loan could easy the paying back of loan. The study recommends that: Since default on loans is linked to high interest rate, MFIs should consider looking into their interest rates to encourage prompt pay menrt. This may be weighed with interest rates of Deposit money banks and made relatively lower to encourage borrowers of MFIs. KEYWORDS: Microfinance, Interestrate, Borrowers, Loan.
Citation:Olufolakemi Oludami Afrogha and Oluwamayowa Iyanuoluwa Oluleye (2021)Effect of Microfinance Banks’ Interest Rate on Loan Repayment Capability of Borrowers, European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, Vol.9, No. 9, pp.18-29
Keywords: Banks’, Interest Rate, Loan, Microfinance, Repayment, borrowers
Accounting Implications of Oil Price, Interest Rate and Unemployment on Nigeria’s Economic Growth (Published)
Holding other variables constant, exchange rate and unemployment are supposed to have an inverse relationship. Is this really the case in the Nigerian economy? Does oil price have an impact on unemployment in Nigeria? Our study analyzed the accounting implications of oil price, interest rate and unemployment on Nigeria’s economic growth using data from 1981 to 2019. Using ARDL and VEC models, our finding revealed that all variables had a short and long term association and were statistically significant, hence we recommended better economic policies should be put in place by government to curb unemployment because this has a long and short run implication on GDP, and that if not properly managed can lead to economic and social vices. The government should formulate policies that are economically friendly in order to encourage local production to boost our export and improve our local currency (Naira) and the exchange rate. This will increase local production and firms will create employment opportunities for our teeming population. Increased oil price has really helped in boosting our GDP. However, the economy should be diversified because any drop in oil price will definitely affect our GDP drastically, both in the short and long run.
Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Oil price, Unemployment, accounting implication, and economic policy, efficient wage model
Analysis of Interest Rate Determination and Its Effect on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1990-2017) (Published)
The study examined the analysis of interest rate determination and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria; for the period 1990-2017. Secondary data were used and sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study employed Gross Domestic Product as proxy for Economic Growth and used as the dependent variable; whereas, prime lending rate (interest rate), inflation and private domestic investment were used as explanatory variables to measure interest rate. Hypotheses were formulated and tested using Ordinary Least Square econometrics models. Private domestic investment had a significant effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Inflation had an insignificant effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Interest rate had an inverse significant effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The coefficient of determination indicates that about 65% of the variations in economic growth can be explained by changes in commercial bank lending variables in Nigeria. The study concluded that interest rate had an insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that Government and policy makers should focus on maintaining inflation at a low rate (single digit) and ensure that the rate is stable; this will take care of the problem of inflation on the economy. CBN should increase their surveillance on the commercial banks; in order to address the issue of arbitrarily increase of the lending rate. Government should provide healthy environment for the banks in the industry so as to render efficient financial services to the economy.
Keywords: Analysis, Determination, Economic, Growth, Interest Rate, Nigeria
THE RISING INCIDENCE OF NON -PERFORMING LOANS AND THE NEXUS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: AN INVESTIGATION (Published)
Since the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in the 1980’s, the financial system has witnessed excessive liberalization. Community Banks which were the main stay of the financial system have transformed to Microfinance Banks (MFB) resulting from the uncontrolled collapsed of these institutions. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) very recently introduced reforms meant to curb the high incidence of bank failures in the country that required the introduction of minimum capital requirement for the establishment of commercial Banks and MFBs. After some years of experiments, it was obvious that the reforms put in place were not adequate to stem the tide of bank failures. It was as a result of this that the Apex Bank (Central Bank of Nigeria) increase the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks to N25b ($160,000). Many Banks could not meet this new capital requirement and were faced with the option of been merged with other stronger banks or allowed themselves to be completely taken over by other banks. From researches done on the performance of banks, it has been proven that banks tend to do very well when the economy is also doing very well. It is on this basis that this work has been undertaken to confirm this assertion or otherwise confirm that non- performing loans tend to increase when the economy slacks into a recession. The study found that increase in non-performing loans impacted negatively on the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria and that increase in lending rate and inflation rate cause non-performing loans to increase. The implication of this study is that Central bank should introduce policies that can have moderating effects on inflation and lending rates.Government should pay their loans on time and insider abuse should be eliminated from the financial system. Above all, banks should know their customers before granting loans to them, infact adhering strictly to the 5C’s of credit in modern banking practice.
Keywords: Collateral, Economy, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Non-Performing Loans, Reforms/Government Policies
DOES INFLATION WEAKEN ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA (Published)
The study aims at evaluating the link between inflationary rate and economic growth in Nigeria. It also examines the nature and form of association between inflationary rate and exchange rate as well as interest rates from 1979 t0 2010.Ordinary least squares approach in the form of multiple regression was adopted in examining the relationship among the variables while the causalities were evaluated using Granger Causality model. It is pertinent to check whether the short run relationships would be sustained in the long run. To achieve this, Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique was adopted while the variables were adjusted for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) tests for unit root. It was found that inflationary rate is negatively related with real gross domestic product while exchange rates and interest rates are positively related with inflationary rate though not to a very significant extent. This is sustainable even in the long run and the implication is that when inflationary rate is rising, it affects the economy negatively as growth is dampened. On causality, at both lag 2 and lag 4, the study reveals that there is no causality between inflationary rate and real gross domestic product. However, at lag 2, there is a unidirectional causality running from inflationary rate to interest rate and also a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to real gross domestic product. At lag 4, there is a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to inflationary rate and from interest rate to exchange rate and also a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate to real gross domestic product. Consequently, efforts should be geared towards keeping inflationary rate at a single digit level to enhance the growth and development of Nigeria economy and to ensure that macroeconomic activities are kept alive
Keywords: Cointegration, Exchange Rate, GDP, Granger, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate