Fluctuating Exchange Rate and Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Time Series Assessment of Over Three Decades’ Experience Using Interest Rate and Inflation Rates as Control Variables (Published)
This study examined the empirical investigation of the effect of fluctuating exchange rate on Nigeria’s economy from 1986 to 2021. The specific objective is to determine the combined effects of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate on gross domestic product and the individual effect of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate on the gross domestic product. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics. The regression analysis to provide meaning to the research through which the following findings were made; this study depicts on exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate contribution to gross domestic product. The consequences of this examination have demonstrated that exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate are serious determinants of gross domestic product in the Nigerian Economic Growth. The factors (exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate) when presented synonymously, have performed well regarding economic growth. The finding suggested that exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate are determinants of gross domestic product. A practical assessment of these dimensions revealed that exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate were effectively stabilized and they will achieve a greater significant benefit in terms of gross domestic product. The result shows that, the higher stability of exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate the higher the possibility of gross domestic product of Nigeria, which will definitely have positive significant impact on economic growth of Nigeria.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Nigeria, economic growth, fluctuating exchange rate
Currency devaluation on the Exportation Revenue: A study of Nigeria, South Africa and China (2000-2017) (Published)
The study examines the impact of currency devaluation on total export revenue in Nigeria, South Africa and China. Secondary data were sourced from World Bank Data Atlas for inflation rate (INFR), exchange rate (EXR), money supply (MS) and total export revenue (TER) for the period of 2000 to 2017 and were subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip Perron Unit Root test, Johansen Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model. The study discovers that EXR, INFR and MS were unable to impact exportation revenue in Nigeria and South Africa while showing strong impact on exportation revenue of China. The result also shows that only China enjoys long run relationship while Nigeria and South Africa currency devaluation variables showed absence of long run relationship with exportation revenue. Thus, the study concludes that currency devaluation in China impact negatively on the export position of Nigeria and South African economies. Hence, the study recommends maintenance of China’s currency devaluation position while Nigeria and South Africa should re-evaluate and re-adjust their currency devaluation procedures to improve exportation revenue.
Keywords: Currency depreciation, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Money Supply, exportation performance
Inflation, Foreign Exchange Rate and Manufacturing in Nigeria (Published)
Keywords: And Structural Rigidities., Foreign Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Inflation, Foreign Exchange Rate and Manufacturing in Nigeria (Published)
The near free fall of the naira in the parallel-market as a result of persistent fall in the international price of crude-oil is indicative of a monolithic economy. Oil export had accounted for an average of 97 percent total export since 1981 to 2013, hence in the current face of dwindling foreign exchange earnings tremendous pressure is been exacted on the naira. This study seeks to examine this phenomenon of inflation in Nigeria in terms of structural rigidities that have limited agricultural output and of course diversification of the Nigerian economy. Based on theoretical underpinnings two explanatory variables were specified in the model of the study, where the study sought to establish relationship between the explanatory variables and manufacturing capacity utilization (MCU) in Nigeria.
Keywords: And Structural Rigidities., Foreign Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Empirical Analysis of Effects of Inflation on Aggregate Stock Prices in Nigeria: 1980-2012 (Published)
This paper investigates empirically the effects of inflation on aggregate stock prices in Nigeria during the period of 1980-2012. Annual time series data on Stock Prices (ASP) and inflationary pressure measure were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin and Nigeria Stock Exchange Fact book. Employing the Engle-Granger and Johansen-Joselius method of co-integration in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) setting, in addition to Granger causality Test, Argumented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) was employed. The empirical results shows that there exist a long run equilibrium negative and significantly relationship between inflation rate and aggregate stock prices, Broad money supply (M2) has a negative and significantly effects on aggregates stock prices, Narrow Money Supply (M1) shows a positive and significantly effects on aggregates stock prices while Average inflation rate show a positive and significantly relationship between aggregate stock prices. The results also show a strong relationship with an R2 of 0.886 representing 89.6% variations in the explanatory variables. However, the direction of causality between the money supply measures and aggregate stock prices is mixed. We recommend for the strengthening of monetary policy objective of price stability for the purpose of achieving efficiency in performance of the stock prices quoted in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).
Keywords: Aggregate Stock Prices, Co-integration, Inflation Rate, Unit Root Causality Tests
IMPACT OF THE NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET ON THE ECONOMY (Published)
There are elements upon which a nations’ economic development are dependent. The importance of Capital Market as one of the vehicles upon which most under-developed economies could grow cannot be overemphasized. The extent to which these economies experience the said growth is quite relative to the level of awareness and management of the market. Nigeria is not left out in the desire to maximize the gains of the capital market to boost its economy. This paper empirically examines the impact of the Nigerian Capital Market on the Nigerian economy looking at a 20 years period from 1992 to 2011. The Nigerian Capital Market was proxy as Market Capitalization against some variables of the economy such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation Rates, Total New Issues, Value of Transaction and Total Listing. Using the multiple regression analysis, we find that Capital Market has an insignificant impact on the Economy within the period under review. The study therefore advised that policies and measures that would boost investors’ confidence should be enshrined in the running of Nigerian Capital Market so that it could contribute significantly to the growth of Nigerian economy noting that all elements of the market are essential ingredients to the development of a nation.
Keywords: Capital market, Foreign Direct Investment, GDP, Inflation Rate, Total new issues, Value of Transaction, and Total listing
THE RISING INCIDENCE OF NON -PERFORMING LOANS AND THE NEXUS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: AN INVESTIGATION (Published)
Since the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in the 1980’s, the financial system has witnessed excessive liberalization. Community Banks which were the main stay of the financial system have transformed to Microfinance Banks (MFB) resulting from the uncontrolled collapsed of these institutions. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) very recently introduced reforms meant to curb the high incidence of bank failures in the country that required the introduction of minimum capital requirement for the establishment of commercial Banks and MFBs. After some years of experiments, it was obvious that the reforms put in place were not adequate to stem the tide of bank failures. It was as a result of this that the Apex Bank (Central Bank of Nigeria) increase the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks to N25b ($160,000). Many Banks could not meet this new capital requirement and were faced with the option of been merged with other stronger banks or allowed themselves to be completely taken over by other banks. From researches done on the performance of banks, it has been proven that banks tend to do very well when the economy is also doing very well. It is on this basis that this work has been undertaken to confirm this assertion or otherwise confirm that non- performing loans tend to increase when the economy slacks into a recession. The study found that increase in non-performing loans impacted negatively on the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria and that increase in lending rate and inflation rate cause non-performing loans to increase. The implication of this study is that Central bank should introduce policies that can have moderating effects on inflation and lending rates.Government should pay their loans on time and insider abuse should be eliminated from the financial system. Above all, banks should know their customers before granting loans to them, infact adhering strictly to the 5C’s of credit in modern banking practice.
Keywords: Collateral, Economy, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Non-Performing Loans, Reforms/Government Policies
DOES INFLATION WEAKEN ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA (Published)
The study aims at evaluating the link between inflationary rate and economic growth in Nigeria. It also examines the nature and form of association between inflationary rate and exchange rate as well as interest rates from 1979 t0 2010.Ordinary least squares approach in the form of multiple regression was adopted in examining the relationship among the variables while the causalities were evaluated using Granger Causality model. It is pertinent to check whether the short run relationships would be sustained in the long run. To achieve this, Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique was adopted while the variables were adjusted for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) tests for unit root. It was found that inflationary rate is negatively related with real gross domestic product while exchange rates and interest rates are positively related with inflationary rate though not to a very significant extent. This is sustainable even in the long run and the implication is that when inflationary rate is rising, it affects the economy negatively as growth is dampened. On causality, at both lag 2 and lag 4, the study reveals that there is no causality between inflationary rate and real gross domestic product. However, at lag 2, there is a unidirectional causality running from inflationary rate to interest rate and also a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to real gross domestic product. At lag 4, there is a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to inflationary rate and from interest rate to exchange rate and also a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate to real gross domestic product. Consequently, efforts should be geared towards keeping inflationary rate at a single digit level to enhance the growth and development of Nigeria economy and to ensure that macroeconomic activities are kept alive
Keywords: Cointegration, Exchange Rate, GDP, Granger, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate