Harmonic-Trend Modelling of Thunderstorm Rainfall Over Makurdi and Jos, in the Middle Belt Region of Nigeria (Published)
This study developed a harmonic-trend model to characterise and project thunderstorm rainfall variability over Makurdi and Jos in the Middle Belt region of Nigeria, using daily and monthly thunderstorm rainfall data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) for the period 1995–2024. Descriptive statistics, linear trend analysis, and Fourier harmonic modelling were applied to isolate the long-term (secular) trend and the cyclical (seasonal/periodic) components of thunderstorm rainfall, which were then combined into a single hybrid harmonic-trend model. Results showed that thunderstorm rainfall averaged 634 mm annually in Jos and 546 mm in Makurdi, with Jos exhibiting a statistically significant increasing trend (r² = 0.2496) while the increase in Makurdi was not significant (r² = 0.0023). The harmonic component captured strong seasonal periodicity in both locations, reflecting the concentration of thunderstorm activity within the rainy season (March–October). When combined, the harmonic-trend model explained over 97% of the variability in thunderstorm rainfall at both stations, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values ranging from 0.91 to 0.99, indicating excellent model performance and validating its suitability for both historical characterisation and future projection. Extrapolation of the validated model to 2050 projected a continued increase in thunderstorm rainfall intensity at both stations, with a more pronounced upward trajectory in Jos than in Makurdi. These findings highlight the growing dominance and intensification of thunderstorm-driven rainfall in the Middle Belt under changing climatic conditions. The study concludes that harmonic-trend modelling provides a robust and reliable tool for forecasting convective rainfall behaviour in data-sparse tropical environments, and recommends that NiMet incorporate such models into operational forecasting systems, while policymakers integrate the projected rainfall intensification into flood-risk management and climate-adaptive planning for the region.
Keywords: Harmonic-trend model, Makurdi and Jos., Rainfall, Thunderstorm
Evaluation of GHG Emissions on Climate of the Braced States in the Niger Delta (Published)
This study evaluates greenhouse gas emissions on the climate in the BRACED States of the Niger Delta. The emission of greenhouse gases leads to deforestation, reduced vegetation, and a decline in biodiversity. To achieve the study, an ex post facto research design was used. The study utilised field measurements and historical data to assess these factors. Data were collected and monitored from twelve distinct locations between September 2022 and February 2023. The findings indicate that Akwa Ibom had the lowest concentrations of greenhouse gas and climate variables. The concentrations of greenhouse gases and climate variables were found to be lowest in Akwa Ibom and Rivers States. Similarly, Rivers, Cross Rivers, and Edo States exhibited comparatively lower quantities of carbon dioxide emissions and low rainfall. The study’s findings observed a strong correlation between climate (temperature and rainfall) and greenhouse gas emissions in the BRACED states. Statistical analysis at the P<0.05 level of significance indicates that greenhouse gas emissions account for around 32.5% of the observed variations. This analysis offers a method for determining the climate impact of GHG emissions. It is recommended that law on gas flaring activities should be brought to actions.
Keywords: GHG, Rainfall, Temperature, emissions, environmental externality
The Impact of Rainfall on The Conservation of Traditional Nigerian Heritage Buildings: A Case Study of the Museum of Traditional Nigerian Architecture (MOTNA), Jos (Published)
Advancements in building construction technology and the advent of foreign materials that came with Nigeria’s colonial and post-colonial periods led to the mass abandonment of traditional buildings for a “contemporary” option. The need to preserve the nation’s architectural heritage led to the establishment of the Museum of Traditional Architecture (MOTNA). Within the museum are life-size replicas of various traditional buildings across the country. Studies, observations, and documentaries reveal how the longevity and functionality of indigenous Nigerian buildings have been altered by weather elements such as precipitation and relative humidity. This study investigates the impact rainfall has on the conservation of traditional heritage buildings over time. Four buildings that together represent the bioclimatic zones in Nigeria were selected through purposeful sampling. Heritage buildings were investigated through the case study/observation method. The studies revealed that all heritage buildings were significantly affected by the effects of rainfall due to their design morphology and material usage. The investigation concluded that the conservation of Nigerian traditional heritage buildings can be unusually challenging. This is because most local building materials are susceptible to the effects of rainfall and require frequent replacement, which might be against conservation laws.
Citation: Mela I. and Cao Y. (2023) The Impact of Rainfall on The Conservation of Traditional Nigerian Heritage Buildings: A Case Study of the Museum of Traditional Nigerian Architecture (MOTNA), Jos, British Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol.11, No.1, pp.,11-33
Keywords: Conservation, Preservation, Rainfall, Traditional Architecture, heritage buildings