Tourism-Led Growth in Nigeria: A Time-Series and Structural Equation Modelling Approach to International Tourist Arrivals, Receipts, and GDP Contribution (2010–2025) (Published)
This study investigates the relationship between tourism demand and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 2010–2025, employing an integrated analytical framework that combines time-series econometric techniques and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Using annual data on international tourist arrivals, tourism receipts, tourist spending, and tourism contribution to GDP, the study applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, and Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics. In addition, PLS-SEM is utilized to assess structural relationships and mediation effects among the variables. The results confirm the existence of a long-run co-integrating relationship among tourism demand indicators and economic growth. Empirical findings reveal that tourism receipts and tourist spending are the most significant drivers of GDP, while international tourist arrivals exert both direct and indirect effects through these channels. The ECM results indicate a significant and negative adjustment coefficient, suggesting a relatively strong speed of convergence to long-run equilibrium following short-run shocks. Furthermore, SEM analysis demonstrates that tourism receipts and tourist spending significantly mediate the relationship between tourist arrivals and GDP, highlighting the importance of value-based tourism over volume-driven strategies. The study provides empirical support for the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the Nigerian context while offering methodological contributions through the integration of ARDL and SEM approaches. Policy implications emphasize the need for revenue-focused tourism strategies, infrastructure development, institutional strengthening, digital transformation, and sustainable tourism practices to enhance the sector’s contribution to economic development. The findings underscore tourism’s potential as a strategic tool for economic diversification and inclusive growth in Nigeria.
Keywords: ARDL, Nigeria, PLS-SEM, economic growth, tourism receipts, tourism-led growth, tourist spending