Modeling The Transmission Dynamics of Lassa Fever in a Heterogeneous Population Using a Deterministic Approach (Published)
This study presents a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of lassa fever in a heterogeneous population in Nigeria, incorporating both human and rodent compartments. The human population is divided into the susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, infective and recovered classes. While, the rodent population consist of susceptible and infective classes. The model is analyses quantitatively to establish the positivity, boundedness and feasibility of solutions. The disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) are obtained and their stability is investigated using the Jacobian matrix and Routh-Hurwitz criteria. The basic reproduction number R̥₀ is derived using the next generational matrix method and is used as a threshold parameter to determine disease persistence. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identity key parameters influencing of the spread of the disease. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the impact of these parameters to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies such as hygiene, rodent control and treatment. The result shows that lassa fever can be controlled when R₀ < 1, and that a combination of intervention strategies significantly reduces disease transmission. This study provides useful insights for public health planning and policy formulation in controlling lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria.
Keywords: Endemic, Equilibrium, Lassa fever, Population, Stability, reproduction number, sensitivity