Rethinking the effectiveness of fiscal allocation strategy: A focus on economic development in Nigeria (Published)
This paper developed and estimated two autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to explore the empirical relationship between fiscal policy allocation strategies and economic development in Nigeria. Specifically, the impacts of public expenditures on social and community services, economic services and administration on poverty headcount and income inequality were examined between 1990 and 2017. The unit root test results show that the variables are mixed integrated. The ARDL bounds test results revealed that long run relationship exists among the variables in each of the models. The ARDL estimates reveal that public capital expenditure on economic services in addition to expenditure on social and economic services have significant positive impact on poverty headcount in the short run. The result further indicates that expenditure on administration negatively influenced the poverty level. More so, expenditure on economic services and income inequality are relatively related in the short run while public expenditure on social and community services play significant in reducing income inequality in both short and long run. Therefore, it is recommended that fiscal policy allocation should made adequate provision for investments in social and economic services in order to create better opportunities for everyone in a view to reducing the income divide within the Nigerian economy.
Keywords: ARDL and Nigeria, Fiscal Policy, Income Inequality, Poverty, public investments
Interfaces between Road Infrastructure and Poverty in Africa: The Case of Malawi, 1994-2013 (Published)
Critical assessment on the correlation between public investment on road infrastructure and poverty was carried out, and therefore this research paper provides an in depth analyses of the linkage between road infrastructure and poverty, as well as, other relevant macro economic variables used in the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) as target indicators. Using primary and secondary data from 1994-2013, dynamic time series models were applied in elaborating the various factors with thrust on road infrastructure that may influence poverty in Malawi. Noting poverty reduction as priority of Malawi Government’s development agenda since the early 1990s, MGDS provides the country’s socioeconomic growth and development platforms. According to the latest 2010 Integrated Household Survey (IHS3), the majority of Malawians (50.7 percent) are languishing in abysmal poverty; this level is remotely far from the MDGS target of 27 percent by end 2015. The country has a high inequality index (Gini 0.38) reflecting profound inequalities in access to assets, services and opportunities across the population. The distribution of the benefits of economic growth is also important for the alleviation of poverty. However, the distribution of income and wealth are highly skewed, with a majority of the population living in a state of absolute poverty. Based on NSO surveys (1998-2010), the poorest 20 percent of the population control only around 10 percent of national consumption implying inequality is not decreasing at all for long time. Hosts of factors explaining why poverty level continues to be rampant are: share of agricultural as a percent of GDP (proxy to agricultural production) and export as percent of GDP (proxy to exports). However, this paper findings show that there is significant (p=0.000<0.05) relationship between road network and poverty levels. Estimates from Granger Causality analysis indicate that for one percent increase in road network, a reduction of 7.2 percent in poverty level is perhaps achievable. Average inflation rate over the last 20 years stands at 22.41 percent, and this has an immense impact on poverty level since it dramatically reduces the purchasing power of the majority of the population. For a one percent increase in the inflation rate, there is a consequence of about 3.7 percent increase in the average poverty level. Average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is 4.7 percent annually with a minimum of -4.9 percent and a maximum of 10.2 percent in the last 20 years. Poverty level appears to significantly respond to (GDP). There is a 4.27 percent reduction in poverty level if a one percent GDP increment takes place as shown in the dynamic time series analysis. In fact, the declining of agricultural production for export and the growing gap in balance of payment (average Malawi Kwacha -498.92 billions or approximately US$1.1 billion) would immensely influence GDP negatively and therefore poverty becomes abysmal as GDP growth plummets. In a nutshell, the findings confirm that in the long run economic growth is the key to alleviation of extreme poverty since it creates the resources to raise incomes. Given the importance of agriculture in contributing towards GDP in Malawi, the positive impact that this sector has on poverty is evident. For agriculture to meaningfully impact economic growth, road infrastructure plays a great role. Other pro-poor variables such as development roads and other investment on infrastructure are vital for economic growth and hence poverty alleviation.
Keywords: Granger Causality, Infrastructure, Malawi, Poverty, Public Investment, Vector Autoregression
Islamic Microfinance System and Poverty Alleviation (Published)
Islamic microfinance is a finance system that follows the teachings of Shariah laws; this is a financial system that does not attract interest and promotes the welfare of its members while following the ethical business practices. This is a concept that is fast gaining prominence as a means of alleviating poverty especially in developing countries. In this paper, it has been found out that Islamic finance plays an important role in social economic development of its members without charging interest on the members. Furthermore, Islamic finance offers different ethical instruments and schemes that can be used for the purposes of microfinance. In Islamic finance, investors are allowed to determine the nature of investments that are done using their money. This paper is therefore important in understanding the concept of Islamic finance in alleviating poverty. It can be very useful for banks and financial institutions who have Muslims as part of their client base.
Keywords: Islamic System, Microfinance, Poverty
Inequality, Poverty among Nigeria Women and Youth and the Challenges of Inclusive Growth in Post 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) (Published)
By all standards, economic growth is expected to reduce poverty, rather poverty in Nigeria has remained high as 112m people representing 67 percent of the population are in abject poverty while GDP rates fell to 7.68 per cent in 2011 from 8.60 in 2010. Income inequality was 0.3594(2010) and -25.9 in 2011(BOS,2012). If Millennium Development Goals (MDG) could affect poverty level in India and China, why has Nigeria’s poverty level remained high? The study hence, examined the challenges of inequality and poverty reduction among Nigerian women and youth with focus on inclusive growth in post 2015 MDG. Content analysis of secondary literature was undertaken to address the problem of the study. Findings indicated that poverty in Nigeria is not affected due to misdirection of programmes from rural to urban areas, inadequate funding, lack of control, transparency and accountability and inadequate coverage of the poor. The study suggested that entrepreneurial training programmes and capability creation, combined with an all inclusive effort aimed at providing education and health facility, integrated growth, income distribution, and financing land ownership are highly required. Conclusively, poverty in Nigeria can be substantively reduced if an all inclusive approach is adopted covering entrepreneurial training backed with monitoring and accommodation of large coverage of the poor in the programme in post 2015 MDG plans.
Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Inclusive Growth, Inequality, Poverty