Nigeria

Public Expenditure, Official Development Assistant and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis for Nigeria (1981 – 2018) (Published)

In addition to divergent views of economists on the effect of public expenditure on economic growth, results of existing empirical studies in developed and developing economies has remained inconclusive and tends to depend on the period of study, econometric method, nature of data and the composition of government expenditure. In this study, public expenditure in Nigeria is decomposed into domestic and the foreign receipts components. The domestic component comprises capital expenditure (GCE) and recurrent expenditure (GRE) while the foreign receipts component captures foreign inflow of official development assistance (ODA). Employing extended aggregate production function framework and bound test approach (ARDL model), this study examined the impact of each of these three components of public expenditure (GCE, GRE and ODA) on economic growth in Nigeria for the period (1981- 2018). The findings of this study indicate the existence of a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variables estimated in the model. The recurrent expenditure (GRE) has positive impact on economic growth both in the short-run and in the long-run, countering the widely held view that government consumption spending is growth-reducing. The capital expenditure (GCE) and official development assistance (ODA) have negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short-run and long-run. The granger causality test result shows no causal relationship between GDP and GCE and between GDP and ODA, but a bi-directional causal relationship exists between GDP and GRE. It is recommended that greater percentage of public fund should be expended as capital expenditure and such fund should be properly utilized on acquisition of physical capital and social overhead capital like transportation, electricity, communication, irrigation, flood control, research and human capital development, capital formation in agricultural and industrial sectors to enhance the productive capacity of the economy. ODA in recent times has been unreliable source of finance in Less Developed countries, hence Nigeria should not heavily depend on it. However, whatever ODA is received should be properly utilized and channel into productive projects which have significant positive impact on economic activities and wellbeing of the populace. The fight against corruption in the country should be frontally confronted to free more public fund for collective development purposes in the country.   

Keywords: Capital Expenditure, Nigeria, Official Development Assistance, Public expenditure, Recurrent Expenditure, economic growth

A Review of United Nations Development Programme Reports on Human Capital Development in Nigeria (Published)

The objective of this paper is to review the United Nation Reports on Nigeria Human Security and Development for 2015 and 2016 and to synthesize the selected indices of growth and development for policy formulation. More so, to compare and contrast the current socio-economic situation with the projections revealed by these reports. This survey (i)provides an overview of the socio-economic condition of the Nigerian state, (ii) reviews the literature provided by the 2015 and 2016 reports (iii)summarizes the methods and materials employed by the reports (iv) the report’s findings were critiqued vis-à-vis current economic realities and (v)  recommendations. The review revealed that the hard economic situation in the country was compounded by 2016 recession and Covid-19 pandemic. It was also discovered that political sentiments and absence of political will were causes of underdevelopment in Nigeria. Based on this, the paper recommends that, governments at all levels should be accountable, transparent, purposeful and people-centered to enhance capabilities and opportunities and growth of the country.

Keywords: Human Security, Human development, Nigeria, Policy Formulation, United Nations

Understanding the Antecedents of Online Shopping Behaviour: An Empirical Evidence from a Typical Emerging Market Context (Published)

With the increasing number of online shopping in Nigeria, the need to understand the key predictors of consumers’ choice to shop online has become legitimate and urgent. While extant literatures are replete with such investigations, most emerging economy contexts are heavily under-researched. Using this as a point of departure, this paper seeks to answer the question: why do consumers shop online in such emerging economy context as Nigeria? The study was based on selected online shoppers in Awka, a growing metropolitan city in Nigeria that represents an emerging economy context. Data were collected using questionnaire based on a quota sampling of 110 respondents. Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression were used to reduce the data and test the hypotheses respectively. Analysis of the data show that online shopping experience, and impulse purchase orientation are significant in determining online shopping patronage; while online trust is not significant. The finding has serious implication for e-commerce policy formulation and web management decision among others.

Keywords: Emerging Market, Nigeria, Online Shopping, impulse purchase, internet retailing., online shopping experience, online trust

Analysis of Mechanisms for Promoting Local Content towards National Development in Nigeria: A Case Study of NOGICD ACT, the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and its Community Content Guideline (CCG) (Published)

The quest for the growth of indigenous businesses and investments in the nation’s economy and necessity to maximize participation of Nigerians in oil and gas activities have prompted the “indigenization” policy which was first articulated as a legal instrument in the Nigeria’s Petroleum Act of 1969. The paper considers the situation where the region that produces the bulk of national wealth and contributes so much to global oil wealth, is at the same time, the region where local dwellers ravaged in extreme poverty as reason for the government to constantly review its approach and strategy towards achieving the intention for indigenization. The paper assesses the various initiatives set forth to position Nigerians to fully access the benefits and opportunities within the nation’s oil and gas industry. It observes that the NOGIC Act 2010 which gives birth to the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the consequential  Community Content Guideline (CCG) constitute a paradigm shift in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. The paper concludes that considering the current global economic order, the NOGIC Act provides a viable path to sustainable national economic development while the Community Content Guideline CCG is a veritable vehicle for fast tracking development in community context.

Keywords: CCG, Indigenization, NCDMB, National Development, Nigeria, local content

Coronavirus Pandemic and the Nigeria’s Entertainment Industry (Published)

This paper hinges on the consequences of the  Coronavirus (COVID-19)  Pandemic on Nigeria’s entertainment industry. It argues that since the outbreak of the pandemic, it has constituted various challenges in different sectors since it led to the total shutdown of the world’s economy including Nigeria.  This was the first time in the history of humankind that all the worship centers in Nigeria were closed down to curtail further spread of the virus. The pandemic also affected drastically the educational activities, business activities, tourism, and even the entertainment industry. Given the grave consequences arising from the outbreak of COVID-19, a lot of studies were conducted by scholars of different disciplinary backgrounds to find out ways of containing the spread of this deadly disease. However, most of these studies rather generalized the effects of Covid-19 on the nation’s economy. As a departure from other academic works, the study, therefore, confines itself to discuss the debilitating effects of COVID-19 on Nigeria’s entertainment industry. Using the documentary method of data collection and social distance theory, the paper reveals that the pandemic has affected the entertainment industry thereby retarding the development of the sector. The study concludes that, for the industry to be stable and vibrant, the further spread of the pandemic must be regulated. In this wise, the paper recommends amongst other measures like social distancing, regular washing of hands, and the prohibition of large gatherings as part of the ways to reduce the spread of the virus.

Keywords: Nigeria, coronavirus, entertainment industry, pandemic

Nonlinear and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices In Nigeria: Evidence from a Smooth Transition Auto-regressive Model (Published)

This paper examines the nonlinearities and asymmetries in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Nigeria using quarterly time-series data from 1986 to 2013 and the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) method. The standard literature assumes linearity and symmetry in the ERPT to consumer prices in developing counties, despite the importance and presence of potential asymmetries and nonlinearities which are generated by the presence of various factors such as menu costs, capacity constraints, market share objectives and production switching. This study develops a partial equilibrium microeconomic mark-up model to investigate asymmetric and nonlinear behaviour in the ERPT. The study confirms the presence of nonlinear ERPTs due to different inflation levels. The results also show asymmetric ERPTs in the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rates. The magnitude of the ERPT also depends on the size of the exchange rate change. The ERPT is higher during depreciation than during the appreciation episodes of the Naira. Nonlinearity is more prevalent during the high inflationary period of the 1990s than in other periods. The policy implication of the results is that the government, despite temptations to do so, should avoid the devaluation of the Naira during high inflation periods to reduce the impact on consumer prices and the associated costs.

Keywords: Asymmetry, Nigeria, exchange rate pass-through, nonlinearity

Monetary Policy and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria (Published)

The objective of the study is to determine the impact of monetary policy on inclusive growth. The study employed multivariate regression model to establish the effect. Data was collected on PCI as proxy for inclusive growth, and exchange rate, interest rate and money supply as monetary policy tools. The OLS technique revealed a significant variation between money supply and inclusive growth which implies that it will be in the best interest of the populace if monetary policy measures are employed to effect changes in the economy.

Keywords: Growth, Monetary Policy, Nigeria, inclusive

The Impact of Money Supply on Inflation in Nigeria (1980 – 2009) (Published)

This study examined the impact of money supply on inflation in Nigeria between 1980 and 2009, using Vector Error Correction Mode (VECM). The data for the variables were sourced from CBN statistical Bulletin. The results of the test established a significant long run positive relationship between money supply and inflation in Nigeria. Based on this finding, the study recommended that, government intensify the effort to combat inflation by encouraging the monetary authority to put in place policies measures that are gear toward reducing the volume of money in circulation in Nigeria.

Keywords: Inflation, Money Supply, Nigeria, VECM

Domestic Macroeconomic Drivers of Industrialization in Nigeria: Status and Prospects from the Manufacturing Sub-Sector (Published)

While most advanced economies are in the process of industrializing their economies, plots by successive governments to transform the economy Nigerian, from a commodity-driven to an industrialized one, has not yielded much fruits despite several industrial policies and reforms. Based on the United Nations/World Bank success yardsticks with theoretical framework rooted on the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis and the endogenous growth model, this study utilized K-class estimation procedure on Nigeria’s time series between 1990 and 2016. The result obtained indicates that infrastructural development, institutional framework, bank credit,foreign direct investment, electricity, stable exchange rate, low inflation and economic diversification are key drivers of industrialization. The findings also confirm that except the Nigerian economy achieves improved infrastructure delivery and institutional framework as well as stable domestic and currency prices, the efforts towards economic diversification agenda may be counterproductive. It is therefore expedient that Nigeria focuses on building strong macroeconomic fundamental that would accentuate its take-off to industrialization.

Keywords: Diversification, Gross Domestic Product, Industrialization, Macroeconomy, Manufacturing, Nigeria

Domestic Debt and the Performance of Nigerian Economy (1990 -2018): Investigating the Nexus (Published)

The study evaluated the relationship between domestic debt and the performance of Nigerian economy;for the period (1990-2018). Secondary data were used and collectedfrom Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and was employed as the dependent variable to measure the performance of the Nigerian economy; whereas, Development Stock, Treasury Bill and Interest rate were also employed as the independent variables.Hypotheses were formulated and tested using time series econometrics Models.  The result revealed that the variables do not have unit roots. There is also a long-run equilibrium relationship between domestic debt and Gross Domestic Product. The result confirmed that about 72% short-run adjustment speed from long-run disequilibrium. Domestic debthad a causal relationship with Gross Domestic Product. The coefficient of determination indicated that about 64% of the variations of the performance of Nigerian economy can be explained by changes in domestic debt variables. The study concluded that domestic debt had a causal relationship with performance of the Nigerian economy.Thus, the study recommended that Government and policy makers should maintain a debt bank deposit ratio below 35 percent and resort to increase the tax revenue to finance its projects. Government should divest itself of all projects which the private sector can handle including refining crude oil (petroleum product) and transportation. Government should maintain a proper balance between short term and long term debt instruments in such a way that long term instruments dominate the debt market.

Keywords: Domestic debt, Economics Performance, Investigating the Nexus, Nigeria