Disaggregated Imports and Economic Growth in Nigeria (Published)
This study examines how much of the variance in economic growth can be explained by various categories of imports in Nigeria. The study is set to investigate whether it is the import-led or export-led growth hypothesis that holds for Nigeria. The Johansen testing approach to cointegration and the standard desk top pairwise Granger-causality test technique were implimented to achieve this objective. The cointegration test results demonstrate that the relationship between economic growth and decomposed import variables in Nigeria are stable and coalescing in the long run. Particular categories of interest in this study are Food & Life Animal, Manufactured Goods, and Machinery & Transport Equipment as the trio constitute over 75 percent of aggregate import bills during the period under review. Evidence from the pairwise granger casualty tests, contrary to expectation, suggests that import-led growth hypothesis does not hold for Nigeria. These results cannot be divorced from certain factors such as lack of capacity to take advantage of the advanced technologies embodied in the imported capital goods, inability to sustain installed manufacturing capacity and corrupt practices in procurement processes, associated with contracts for the importation of manufactured and capital goods for most failed capital projects.
Keywords: Cointrgration, Disaggregated Imports, Exports, GDP growth, Granger Causality
INTERACTION AMONG EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, FDI AND GDP GROWTH IN BANGLADESH- AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (Published)
This paper has addressed a very important policy question of Bangladesh. This examines the causality among education, employment, FDI and GDP growth in Bangladesh by using time series data from 1980 to 2013. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests show that the time series data is stationary at first difference. Then, the Johansen cointegration analysis indicates that the variables have strong, positive and significant linear relationship between them at .05 level of significance. Granger causality test found the unidirectional causality between employment and literacy rate and also between literacy rate and FDI. Again this empirical Granger causality test found that employment and FDI Granger causes GDP in unidirectional way. Finally, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also used to check the short and long run equilibrium relationships among the variables and the significant results have been found. This study gives the guideline to the researchers and policy makers.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Education, Employment, FDI, GDP growth
INTERACTION AMONG EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, FDI AND GDP GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (Published)
This paper has addressed a very important policy question of Bangladesh. This examines the causality among education, employment, FDI and GDP growth in Bangladesh by using time series data from 1980 to 2013. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests show that the time series data is stationary at first difference. Then, the Johansen cointegration analysis indicates that the variables have strong, positive and significant linear relationship between them at .05 level of significance. Granger causality test found the unidirectional causality between employment and literacy rate and also between literacy rate and FDI. Again this empirical Granger causality test found that employment and FDI Granger causes GDP in unidirectional way. Finally, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also used to check the short and long run equilibrium relationships among the variables and the significant results have been found. This study gives the guideline to the researchers and policy makers.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Education, Employment, FDI, GDP growth