Fiscal Policy, Industrialisation and Economic Diversification in Nigeria (Published)
This research looked at the impact of fiscal policy and industrialization on Nigeria’s economic diversification over the period 1990-2024, using secondary data collected from publications such as the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (2024) and the World Bank Development Outlook (2024). Nigeria over dependence of oil has brought several problems in the economy, such as high unemployment, low levels of industrialisation, and a lack of jobs. To examine the correlations among the variables in the short and long term, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method was used. The ARDL model analysis shows that government expenditure on agriculture boosts non-oil GDP in the short and long term, highlighting agriculture’s importance in reducing oil reliance. Currency volatility hurts the non-oil economy, while manufacturing expenditure has a little beneficial effect. Moderate inflation may also boost short-term growth in some industries. The research emphasises the relevance of agriculture investment and macroeconomic variables like inflation and currency rates for Nigeria’s long-term economic diversification and recommend that government should prioritise increasing agricultural investment to promote productivity, infrastructure, and technology adoption, promoting non-oil GDP development and lowering oil reliance and diversify the economy, policies should prioritise tax incentives, finance availability, and public-private partnerships to boost industrial growth.
Keywords: ARDL, Diversification, Economic, Fiscal Policy, Industrialization, non-oil