This study quantitatively examines the effect of healthcare professionals’ emigration on human resources for healthcare service delivery in Nigeria. Situated within the context of a worsening global health workforce crisis and the Nigerian “Japa” syndrome (a mass exodus of highly skilled professionals), this research investigates how the sustained emigration of doctors and nurses compromises domestic service delivery capacity. Driven by systemic push factors such as poor remuneration, inadequate infrastructure, and insecurity, alongside robust pull factors from high-income nations, the continuous loss of medical personnel severely undermines Nigeria’s health system. Employing an ex-post facto research design, the study utilizes secondary time-series data spanning from 2016 to 2026. Institutional proxies, specifically the Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria (MDCN) letters of good standing and the Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria (NMCN) verification requests, were utilized to measure the independent variables (doctor and nurse emigration). The dependent variables, reflecting healthcare service delivery, were operationalized as the doctor-patient ratio (DPR) and nurse-patient ratio (NPR). Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression and trend analysis. The findings reveal a progressive annual increase in emigration alongside a corresponding severe deterioration in provider-to-patient ratios. Regression analyses indicate that the emigration of doctors has a significant positive (worsening) effect on the doctor-patient ratio. Similarly, the emigration of nurses exerts a significant positive effect on the nurse-patient ratio. The study concludes that the unmitigated emigration of healthcare professionals is a critical determinant of failing healthcare service delivery in Nigeria, leading to unsustainable workloads, prolonged waiting times, and compromised patient care. To safeguard the health system, the study recommends urgent policy interventions including comprehensive remuneration reviews, infrastructural upgrades, ethical bilateral migration management, implementation of targeted retention schemes, and proactive diaspora engagement.
Keywords: Nigeria, emigration, healthcare professionals, healthcare service delivery
