European Journal of Statistics and Probability (EJSP)

EA Journals

Unit Root

Quantifying the Interconnection of Economic Growth and Key Macroeconomic Factors Using the VECM Perspective of Bangladesh (Published)

The study examines the impact and signs of key macroeconomic factors on Bangladesh’s economic growth from 1980 to 2016 using VAR, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results show that the inflation rate has a slightly positive impact on economic growth, but it is not statistically significant. The real interest rate has a significant negative impact on economic growth, while the exchange rate has a significant positive impact. This work concludes that all variables have long-term effects and long-run causality, as well as a weak short-run influence on the economic growth rate.

Keywords: Macroeconomy, Unit Root, VAR, VECM, coinetgration, stationarity

Non-Stationarity in U.S. All-Cause Mortality Rates: Probing The Usefulness of the Idiom ‘Excess Death’ (Published)

Borrowing a bit from the author Yuval Harari − death is a chaos not particularly influenced by predictions made about it. This paper examines the non-stationarity of aggregate U.S. age standardized all cause mortality rates over the period 1968-2021. Both univariate and state-level panel unit root tests confirm that the underlying stochastic process generating U.S. mortality rates changes over time. Examining non-stationary death in the aggregate, controlling for age and population, establishes proper context to scrutinize the usefulness of the idiom ‘excess death’.

Keywords: Panel Data, Unit Root, age standardized death rates, excess death

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