On Forecasting Infant Mortality Rate by Sex using ARIMA Model: A Case of Nigeria (Published)
This paper examines the application of ARIMA model on forecasting Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Nigeria. It undertakes a comparison of Male and Female. The data used were obtained from the website of the World Bank. The data consist of annual Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) on Male and Female from 1980 to 2019. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select the best model and Time Series Plot, Residual Plot and the Histogram for Residuals were used to check the forecast adequacy of the selected models. The results of this study showed that the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) on Male and Female attain stationarity after the second differencing. ARIMA (2,2,0) with AIC of -9.94 and ARIMA (1,2,0) with AIC of -13.10 were selected for forecasting Infant Mortality Rate for Male and Female respectively. The results further showed that the selected ARIMA models are adequate for forecasting male and female Infant Mortality Rate, and that by 2030, Male infant mortality rate will decline to 58.54 per 1000 live births while Female infant mortality rate will decline to 44.50 per 1000 live births.
Keywords: ARIMA, Female, Forecasting, Infant Mortality Rate, Male, Nigeria
General Mortality Rate in Nigeria: A Case Study of Federal Medical Centre Jabi, Abuja (Published)
Mortality is one of the components of population changes; it is completely out of human control and affects every segment of a population. Mortality is a term used to describe the contribution of death to population change and refers to the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place. This study applies a retrospective design through the conduct of record review using the mortality registers from 2013 – 2017 with key variables of interest extracted. The Chi-square test of independence technique, two ways ANOVA, life table, and population projection model (exponential model) were employed for the analysis of the relevant data. The null hypothesis of “No significant association between causes of death and sex” was accepted; P-value of 0.377 is greater than 0.05, we accept Ho and conclude that there is no significant association between diseases and sex. More males than females died of congestive cardiac failure, diabetes and severe birth asphyxia. About 160 males and females were recorded dead in the 2013 – 2017; out of which 53.8% of them were males and 46.2% of them were females – this implies that the risk of death at any given age is less for females than for males. The five-leading cause of death in Nigeria were Congestive Cardiac Failure (45%), Sepsis (23%), Pneumonia (15%), RVD (12%) and Respiratory Distress (5%). The general population growth rate shows a decrease in the rate of mortality across all ages; but the age specific growth rate shows that infant mortality is on the rise and tends to double in the year 2025 if the current growth rate persists. The life table shows that the life expectancy at birth is 43.5 years (= 8.69) and that a man aged 20 years has about 44% chances of dying before his 50th birthday. The study showed that the risk of death at any given age is less for females than for males, while under – 5 years have the higher risk of dying compared to other age categories with about 28.1% of new born babies dying before reaching age five. Regular medical checks remain optimally essential in prolonging of life as well as ensuring a healthy well-being.
Keywords: Abuja, Federal Medical Centre, Jabi, Nigeria, general, mortality rate
General Mortality Rate in Nigeria: A Case Study of Federal Medical Centre Jabi, Abuja (Published)
Mortality is one of the components of population changes; it is completely out of human control and affects every segment of a population. Mortality is a term used to describe the contribution of death to population change and refers to the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place. This study applies a retrospective design through the conduct of record review using the mortality registers from 2013 – 2017 with key variables of interest extracted. The Chi-square test of independence technique, two ways ANOVA, life table, and population projection model (exponential model) were employed for the analysis of the relevant data. The null hypothesis of “No significant association between causes of death and sex” was accepted; P-value of 0.377 is greater than 0.05, we accept Ho and conclude that there is no significant association between diseases and sex. More males than females died of congestive cardiac failure, diabetes and severe birth asphyxia. About 160 males and females were recorded dead in the 2013 – 2017; out of which 53.8% of them were males and 46.2% of them were females – this implies that the risk of death at any given age is less for females than for males. The five-leading cause of death in Nigeria were Congestive Cardiac Failure (45%), Sepsis (23%), Pneumonia (15%), RVD (12%) and Respiratory Distress (5%). The general population growth rate shows a decrease in the rate of mortality across all ages; but the age specific growth rate shows that infant mortality is on the rise and tends to double in the year 2025 if the current growth rate persists. The life table shows that the life expectancy at birth is 43.5 years (= 8.69) and that a man aged 20 years has about 44% chances of dying before his 50th birthday. The study showed that the risk of death at any given age is less for females than for males, while under – 5 years have the higher risk of dying compared to other age categories with about 28.1% of new born babies dying before reaching age five. Regular medical checks remain optimally essential in prolonging of life as well as ensuring a healthy well-being.
Keywords: Abuja, Federal Medical Centre, Jabi, Nigeria, general, mortality rate
Achieving-Drive Behaviour and Self-Perception as Influencers of Personal Functioning Among Nigerian Potential Graduates: A Multivariate Analysis (Published)
The study examined achieving-drive behaviour and self-perception as influencers of personal functioning among Nigerian potential graduates. Participants were 191 (16-30 years) sampled through stratified and cluster techniques. Valid/reliable Type ‘’A’’ Behaviour Scale (TABS), Self-perception Scale (SPS), and Personal Function Inventory (PFI) measured achieving-drive, self-perception, and personal functioning respectively. This study had cross-sectional factorial design, linear regressions and multiple analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics. The findings for Nigerian potential graduates were: Achieving-drive behaviour, and self-perception significantly predicted personal functioning; Elements of personal functioning were significantly influenced by achieving-drive behaviour and self-perception; Achieving-drive accounted for 48% of personal functioning, 43% problem-focused coping, 37% avoidance-focused coping, 33% adaptiveness coping, and 39% emotion-focused coping. Self-perception accounted for 35% of personal functioning, 37% problem-focused coping, 25% avoidance-focused coping, 24% adaptiveness coping, and 30% emotion-focused coping. Recommendations: Nigerian potential graduates and higher institutions should pursue personal competencies and cognitive flexibility for handling challenges.
Keywords: Nigeria, achieving-drive, personal functioning, potential graduates, self-perception
Psychometric Advent of Advanced Progressive Matrices – Smart Version (Apm-Sv) For Use in Nigeria (Published)
The Raven’s Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM) test is a leading global non-verbal measure of mental ability, helping to identify individuals with advanced observation and clear thinking skills who can handle rigorous study programmes as well as the complexity and ambiguity of the modern workplace. APM scale is largely employed by researchers and practitioners in the field of psychometrics, education, medicine and the social sciences. A sample of 3100 participants in Nigeria was randomly drawn to answer nine research questions. Triangulation research design, adopting item response theory (IRT) guided the study. The study developed an abridged form of the APM dubbed Advanced Progressive Matrices-Smart Version (APM-SV). Results revealed that all 15 items of the APM-SV test yield favourable statistics under 3-Parameter Logistic IRT Model with regards to item discrimination, difficulty and guessing. Item Response Function showed preponderance of APM-SV’s reliability of 0.92. The APM-SV showed perfect fit, is bias-free and very suitable for use in Nigeria. APM-SV scale strongly and positively correlated well with other measures of fluid ability such as the APM scale itself, CFIT, Digit Span scale, and Bennett Mechanical Comprehension Test (BMCT).
Keywords: 3-Parameter Logistic Model, Advanced Progressive Matrices, Item Response Theory, Nigeria, Test Bias, X-Calibre