Assessment Of Electricity Demand and Prediction Model For The Furture: Rivers State (Published)
This work is on the Assessment of Electricity demand and prediction model for the future requirement in Rivers State by the year 2025. The data for electricity allocation and load utilization of the state for the period of five years (2011 – 2015) were collated from the central dispatch office of Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company office of Port Harcourt. Two different statistical analyses, “Regression exponential and least square methods,” calculations, graphs were reviewed and applied to justify the analysis. While predictions are 211.3MW and 207.1MW by using regression exponential and least square analysis models respectively for the first year 2016, the load requirement of Rivers State for the year 2025 is expected to have increased to 2113MW and 2071MW respectively. It is observed that there is a great positive relationship between the electricity demand and the years, which implies that as the years moves forward the demand for electricity increases. The positive relationship is attributed to the fast growth of development in Rivers State. The study reveals that the regression exponential model should be adopted because it captures the elastic demand of the consumers during peak and off-peak time with an appreciable growth rate of 21.6%.
Keywords: Assessment, Electricity-demand, Regression-exponential and least-square, predictions-model