Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, Technology Transfer and Industrial Development in Nigerian Manufacturing Sector (Published)
China has emerged as one of Nigeria’s most significant foreign direct investment partners, with Chinese capital flows increasingly shaping the trajectory of Nigeria’s industrial landscape. Yet despite the growing volume of Chinese investment, fundamental questions persist regarding the extent to which this investment has translated into meaningful technology transfer and industrial development outcomes within the manufacturing sector. This study examined the relationship between Chinese foreign direct investment, technology transfer, and industrial development in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, focusing specifically on industrial output, manufacturing productivity, and employment generation. An ex-post facto research design was adopted, with secondary data sourced from UNCTAD World Investment Reports, the China Africa Research Initiative database, the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics publications, and the World Bank Development Indicators, covering the period 2021 to 2025. Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis was employed as the primary analytical technique, supported by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the Johansen cointegration test. The study was anchored on the OLI Eclectic Paradigm, Internalization Theory, Endogenous Growth Theory, Structural Change Theory, and Dependency Theory. Findings revealed that Chinese foreign direct investment does not exert a statistically significant effect on industrial output, that technology transfer facilitated by Chinese FDI has not significantly influenced manufacturing productivity, and that Chinese FDI-induced technology transfer has not produced a significant impact on employment generation. The study concludes that the developmental potential of Chinese FDI remains significantly unrealized due to the concentration of investment in the oil and gas sector, weak absorptive capacity, and inadequate infrastructure. The study recommends policy reorientation toward manufacturing-focused FDI, investment in human capital development, and restructuring of bilateral investment agreements to include binding technology transfer provisions.
Keywords: : Employment generation, Industrial Development, Manufacturing sector, Nigeria, chinese foreign direct investment, industrial output, manufacturing productivity, technology transfer