European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research (EJAAFR)

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DOES INFLATION WEAKEN ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Abstract

The study aims at evaluating the link between inflationary rate and economic growth in Nigeria. It also examines the nature and form of association between inflationary rate and exchange rate as well as interest rates from 1979 t0 2010.Ordinary least squares approach in the form of multiple regression was adopted in examining the relationship among the variables while the causalities were evaluated using Granger Causality model. It is pertinent to check whether the short run relationships would be sustained in the long run. To achieve this, Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique was adopted while the variables were adjusted for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) tests for unit root. It was found that inflationary rate is negatively related with real gross domestic product while exchange rates and interest rates are positively related with inflationary rate though not to a very significant extent. This is sustainable even in the long run and the implication is that when inflationary rate is rising, it affects the economy negatively as growth is dampened. On causality, at both lag 2 and lag 4, the study reveals that there is no causality between inflationary rate and real gross domestic product. However, at lag 2, there is a unidirectional causality running from inflationary rate to interest rate and also a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to real gross domestic product. At lag 4, there is a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to inflationary rate and from interest rate to exchange rate and also a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate to real gross domestic product. Consequently, efforts should be geared towards keeping inflationary rate at a single digit level to enhance the growth and development of Nigeria economy and to ensure that macroeconomic activities are kept alive

Keywords: Cointegration, Exchange Rate, GDP, Granger, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate

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This work by European American Journals is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Unported License

 

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Email ID: editor.ejaafr@ea-journals.org
Impact Factor: 7.77
Print ISSN: 2053-4086
Online ISSN: 2053-4094
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37745/ejaafr.2013

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