Consumer Price Index and Inflation in Nigeria: A Trend Analysis (Published)
This study examines the movement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation dynamics in Nigeria over the decade spanning 2016 to 2026. Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the study adopts a descriptive time-series design and analyses Headline CPI, Headline Inflation, Food Inflation, Core Inflation, Urban Inflation, and Rural Inflation to identify long-run direction, structural patterns, cyclical fluctuations, persistence, turning points, inter-series associations and macroeconomic determinants of inflationary pressures in Nigeria. The results show that CPI maintained a persistent upward trajectory throughout the study period, confirming sustained increases in the general price level. Headline inflation exhibited strong persistence and moved in identifiable waves rather than random short-run fluctuations, with major inflation episodes in 2016–2017, 2020–2021, and especially 2022–2024. The series shows that 2023 was a transition year of steady acceleration, while 2024 marked the peak inflation phase. Comparative evidence indicates that food inflation was the main amplifier of Headline Inflation during the peak period, whereas Core Inflation remained relatively steady during the subsequent Disinflation phase. Urban Inflation also generally exceeded Rural Inflation. The study concludes that inflation in Nigeria over the review period was persistent, episodic, and initially food-led before becoming more generalised. Although inflation moderated after 2024, the pattern reflects Disinflation rather than a full restoration of price stability or clear Deflation. Further structural-break testing and econometric modelling are recommended to explain the underlying drivers of inflation dynamics while experiencing positive Macroeconomic indices. This will surely advance policy design.
Keywords: Nigeria, consumer price index, core inflation, food inflation, headline inflation, time-series analysis