Non-oil Tax Revenue and Economic Sustainability in Nigeria (Published)
This study examines the effect of non-oil tax revenue on economic sustainability in Nigeria. It seeks to address the persistent sustainability deficits that constrain long-term economic development in Nigeria. The study adopts an ex post facto research design using annual time-series data spanning 1984–2024. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables, given its suitability for small sample sizes and mixed order of integration. The results reveal that non-oil tax revenue had positive and statistical significant effect on economic sustainability in both the short run and long run. Furthermore, institutional quality significantly controlled this relationship, strengthening the impact of non-oil tax revenue on economic sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of strengthening institutional frameworks alongside improving non-oil tax revenue mobilization. Policymakers should prioritize efficient tax administration and governance reforms to achieve sustainable economic outcomes. This study contributes to the literature by integrating institutional quality into the non-oil tax revenue economic sustainability nexus using a dynamic ARDL framework, providing robust long-term evidence from Nigeria.
Keywords: Company Income Tax, Customs and Excise Duties, Economic Sustainability, Value Added Tax, institutional quality