Land degradation and desertification pose severe ecological and socio-economic challenges in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Northern Nigeria. This study assesses the spatial and temporal trends of desertification in Yusufari Local Government Area (LGA), Yobe State, Nigeria, from 1991 to 2021, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques. Landsat satellite imagery (TM, ETM+, and OLI-TIRS) for 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 was classified to map Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes, with a focus on desert area dynamics. Climatic data (rainfall and temperature) from 1991 to 2020 were analyzed to examine variability and its relationship with desertification. Results indicate a significant decline in desert-covered areas, from 1,128.03 km² (29.27%) in 1991 to 686.08 km² (17.80%) in 2021, reflecting an average annual reduction of 14.73 km² and a total contraction of 441.95 km² (39.18%). Conversely, vegetation cover increased from 1,082.66 km² (28.09%) to 1,620.51 km² (42.05%) over the same period, representing a 49.68% expansion. Bare land remained dominant but fluctuated, peaking at 1,786.35 km² (46.35%) in 2011 before declining to 1,519.44 km² (39.43%) in 2021, while built-up areas expanded marginally from 11.94 km² (0.31%) to 27.60 km² (0.72%). Accuracy assessments of classified images yielded overall accuracies ranging from 82% to 93%, with Kappa coefficients between 0.76 and 0.91, confirming reliable LULC mapping. Climatic analysis revealed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, with a minimum of 325.3 mm (1992) and maximum of 629.9 mm (2012), and a slight rise in mean temperature over the study period, peaking at 29.56°C in 2010. Statistical correlation using Pearson’s coefficient showed a strong negative relationship between desertification and rainfall (r = -0.78), though not statistically significant (p = 0.22 > 0.05). Temperature exhibited a weak negative correlation with desertification (r = -0.25), also not statistically significant (p = 0.75 > 0.05). The findings suggest that desertification in Yusufari has receded over the past three decades, likely due to a combination of climatic variability and human interventions such as land restoration and afforestation efforts. The study underscores the value of integrated GIS and RS in monitoring environmental degradation and supports the need for sustained land management policies to combat desertification. Recommendations include further investigation into the drivers of vegetation recovery, enhanced use of high-resolution imagery for detailed monitoring, and the development of predictive models to aid in sustainable land use planning.
Keywords: : GIS, Climate Variability, Desertification, Nigeria, Remote Sensing, Sahel, Yusufari, land use land cover change
