Analysis of Herder-Farmer Conflict in the Benue-Nasarawa Corridor, Nigeria (Published)
Farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria’s Middle Belt is well established as regionally concentrated, yet little empirical work has formally tested whether conflict intensity varies significantly within a bounded study area, or systematically weighed the relative contribution of ecological versus institutional drivers to that variation. This paper addresses both questions using conflict data from eight Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Benue and Nasarawa States, Nigeria, covering 2010-2024. Data was collected through well-structured questionnaire. Data was presented in tables and descriptive statistics such as percentages were used to explain the data. A Conflict Intensity Index (CII) and Standardised Weighted CII (SW-CII) were constructed for each LGA, and a Chi-Square test of independence was applied to test spatial distribution formally. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to thirty candidate conflict drivers to identify underlying major factors. Results show pronounced spatial variation: Guma recorded a CII of 9,177, approximately 43% above the next-highest LGA, with the spatial distribution confirmed statistically significant (χ² = 157.7, df = 7, p < 0.05). PCA identified nine components explaining 70.70% of variance, with Environmental and Land Resource Pressure (29.72%) and Rural Insecurity and Livelihood Vulnerability (10.92%) as the two largest dimensions, alongside a distinct Governance and Institutional Failure component linked directly to grazing-route ambiguity following Benue’s 2017 anti-grazing legislation. These findings indicate that the highest-intensity locations are those where ecological and institutional pressures converge, rather than being explained by either dimension alone. The paper concludes that security and development interventions should be explicitly hotspot-weighted and dual-track, addressing ecological and governance drivers simultaneously in the highest-intensity locations identified.
Keywords: Farmer, Nigeria, conflict. Benue-Nasarawa corridor, herder