Amu Darya River (ADR) is one of the two large rivers that drain into the Aral Sea. With the large agricultural land expansion and withdrawals of water for cotton fields, and the potential Khoshtepa irrigation project in Afghanistan, the Amu Darya River flow will experience a continuing decrease in flow volumes. This paper describes hydrologic analyses of the Amu Darya River flow at Kaldar Station in Balkh Province, northern Afghanistan. The Khoshtepa canal will utilize ~5% of the ADR flow. The largest flow decrease will occur due to climate change and glacier budget exhaustion at the rate of ~20% by the end of the 21st century. This study identifies the difficult trade-off situation between resource depletion and population increases. The study indicated that the low flow reduction is ~ 20.4% and the high flow reduction is ~ 4.5%. This ratio suggests conserving water in reservoirs upstream for further redistribution in low flow season. A road map for constructive dialogue across the basin, and the need for changes to the historic decision regarding collaboration will be important to demonstrate how the limited resources can be utilized.
Keywords: Afghanistan, Amu Darya, Aral Sea, hydrologic assessment, water balance
