Temperature and Precipitation Trends Using CMIP6 Model Data Using the Different Senarios in Jimma Zone, ONRS of Ethiopia (Published)
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected trend in temperature and precipitation over Jimma zone. The changes are computed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP6 and SSP5-8.5) from 1980-2020. This study was undertaken to analyze rainfall and Temperature trend in Jimma zone, ONRS of Ethiopia. The study employed Mann-Kendall’s test to detect change in rainfall trends. Results for rainfall trend analysis for Jimma zone indicated decreasing trends, Overall, the observed trends were not statistically significant at 1% and 5%. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increased. The mean temperature in the study area ranges from 20’C to 25 ‘C with annual average temperature of 22 ‘C. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.0181, 0.3536, 0.2041 and 0.026 ‘C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively during the period of 1980–2020. The results of MK test for monthly precipitation data revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend (at 10% level of significance). attributed to an increase in the minimum temperature. It is, therefore, imperative to adjust the agriculture activity with the variability situation and design planned climate change adaptation strategies so as to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of rainfed dependent smallholder farmers
Keywords: CMIP6, Climate Change, Temperature, precipitation
Calculating the Wind-Chill Index for Selected Stations in Iraq (Published)
The Wind-Chill Index (Ko) is used to express a sense of human comfort depends on where the wind speed and temperature together, if considered the human body is a thermal machine liberate energy on an ongoing basis anything that affects the heat loss from the body, which in turn affects the nature of the sensation rate warming to his body and thus affect the rest, and can predict all sense of human beings too hot or cold through calculate the Wind-Chill Index. The aim of this research to clarify the relationship between air elements of each of the temperature and wind speed, can be human comfort through calculate the Wind-Chill Index, using temperature and wind speed data for the period (2005-2015) of the general body from the Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology for selected stations in Iraq (Mosul, Baghdad and Basra), by using of statistical sophisticated programs (Simple Linear Regression and Spearman Rho Test), It was found that the monthly average calculation for the period of the study Wind-Chill Index that the highest value for the index were in Baghdad station 642.47W/m2 for the month JAN, and it found that the lowest value was in Basra station -193.26W/m2 for the month JUL, and found when the seasonal average for calculate the Wind-Chill Index, the winter has high values in addition to the month MAR also has high values in the Mosul and Baghdad stations, except Basra station the month MAR is considered ideal, either for the summer months, it owns and lowest values in Basra and Baghdad stations, where he extends decline to include the month of MAY of the spring and the month SEP of autumn, either Mosul station, the decreasing values includes the month SEP of all autumn, but the rest of the months illustrates months close to human comfort, except Baghdad station the month NOV is a cool, also found through analysis the annual average for Wind-Chill Index the highest value was in Mosul station 288.53 W/m2 in 2013, the lowest value of Basra station 146.45W/m2 in 2015, and found through the statistical operations between temperature and Wind-Chill Index that there is a strong inverse relationship degree of correlation -0.99, as well as the relationship between wind speed and Wind-Chill Index, is a strong inverse relationship, Medium and low in Mosul station reverse correlation is weak the rank correlation -0.252, the station Baghdad high inverse correlation degree of correlation -0.748, while the Basra station, it is an inverse relationship to moderate correlation -0.594.
Keywords: Human comfort, Iraq, Spearman Rho Test, Temperature, Wind speed
Climate Change and Perceived Climate Hazards: A Trend Analysis in Southeast Nigeria (Published)
Current global climatic trends show a deviation from historic trends and this has necessitated this study. The paper analysed climate change trend and the perceived climatic hazards in Southeast Nigeria. Proportionate sampling technique was used to select a sample of 260 food crop farmers for the study and 232 questionnaires were returned. Secondary time series data on mean annual climate variables for a period of thirty years (1984-2014) were collected from National Root Crop Research Institute Umudike and crop output data from National Bureau of statistics. Data were analysed using descriptive statistical tools like polygon/histograms and line graphs. Also, the extent of damage by climate hazards as perceived by respondents was obtained using likert scale. The rainfall volume variation showed a very unstable pattern with high volatility over years with slightly increasing trend in the study area. Result shows that temperature is significant at 1% level of significance while rainfall volume, rainfall days, relative humidity and sunshine duration were insignificant. Rain day was characterized by unsteady rise and fall trend pattern. The trend also indicated an unsteady change in the movements of the relative humidity and sunshine levels. The result for the occurrence of climate hazards as perceived by farmers show 86.2 %, 64.68%, 63.79%, 77.82% of the respondents perceived to a great extent the impact of flooding, sea level rise, longer period of dry spell and wind storm respectively. Based on the finding, it is concluded that the damaging and devastating effects of climate change is in the increase. It is recommended therefore that adequate adaptive measures and mitigations be put in place to cushion the effect of climate change.
Keywords: Climate Change, Climate Hazards, Rainfall, Relative Humidity, Sunshine Duration, Temperature