The Nexuses between Wind and Rainfall Patterns: Using Wind to Predict Rainfall for Enhanced Adaptability to Rainfall Related Hazards (Published)
The ability to predict rainfall patterns is crucial for making informed decisions on proper adaptation to extreme climatic events like floods and droughts. This study assessed ways through which wind direction and speed could be used to predict the nearness of the beginning and end of the rainy season and the amount of rainfall expected to be received during the rainy season. The study was conducted in Mwanga District in Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. It used local perceptions on the nexus between wind and rainfall patterns collected through structured and in-depth interviews involving 110 and 19 respondents, respectively. The local perceptions were corroborated with findings from data on rainfall and wind of the period from 1962 to 2021. It was found that wind tended to blow from the east most of the time and from the south during the long rainy season. Farmers can use the direction of wind to predict the nearness of the beginning and end of the rainy season. If they find that wind blows from the abnormal direction at the beginning of the rainy season, they conclude that the rainy season is yet to begin. Besides, if wind continues blowing from the abnormal direction, after the rainy season has begun, they conclude that rainfall will be less than normal. Further, occurrence of cyclones during the dry season indicates that the short rainy season will start soon. If the frequency of the cyclones is high, then heavy rains will be received. Thus, wind is an important element of weather that could be used to predict the beginning and end of the rainy season as well as the amount of rainfall that will be received. It is, therefore, important that this local knowledge is formally recognized so that it can be used by as many people as possible. Moreover, the local predictions of the pattern of rainfall based on wind should be integrated with modern forecasts to improve the reliability of the predictions at local level. This will lead to the making of informed decisions on adaptation to rainfall-related hazards, and improvement of adaptability and resilience to such hazards.
Citation: Lusiru S.N. (2023) The Nexuses between Wind and Rainfall Patterns: Using Wind to Predict Rainfall for Enhanced Adaptability to Rainfall Related Hazards, International Journal of Weather, Climate Change and Conservation Research, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 1-14
Keywords: Prediction, Rainfall Patterns, Wind direction, Wind speed, adaptability