Probabilistic Estimation of Potential Gas Reserves for the Emerging Nigerian Gas Market (Published)

Proved reserves for the Emerging Nigerian Gas Market is estimated to be around 186 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). In the short to medium term, only 54% or approximately 100 Tcf will be available for utilization, the remaining locked up as Gas Cap Gas, only available on the long term (constrained by OPEC production quota and lack of Gas Utilization Infrastructure). The objective of this study was to estimate the growth potential of Associated Gas (AG) reserves and more importantly determine probabilistic estimates for potential reserves additions from the extensive Non-associated Gas (NAG) accumulations in the Niger Delta.The Niger Delta potential AG reserves growth (deterministic) were investigated using historical reserves figures. The current impetus to commercialize gas and improved field development technologies would in all likelihood, alter the trend of the annual AG Reserves Growth Factors, consistent with what obtains in other developed basins. The probabilistic potential reserves additions from NAG was explored using simple triangular distributions. The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Reserves classification framework was employed to categorize the Proved reserves (1P or P₁) as Associated Gas Reserves and Reserves additions from Non Associated Gas (NAG) as P₂  for Probable reserves (2P or P₁+P₂) generated as a cumulative distribution till 2050. The distribution of reserves obtained will significantly improve future gas reserves availability estimates and plausible production profiles for prospective investors planning to participate in gas to power and other gas utilization projects in the emerging Nigerian gas market.

Keywords: Gas Market, Gas Reserves, Probable, Proved, Reserves Growth