TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR MODELING AND DETECTING SEASONALITY PATTERN OF AUTO-CRASH CASES RECORDED AT FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION, OSUN SECTOR COMMAND (RS 111), OSOGBO (Published)
Motor accident is a major cause of mortality and disability in Nigeria, which
explains the reason for the establishment of Federal Road Safety Commission in 1988 to address
the carnage and maiming on the highways and roads. This paper employed Time Series statistical
tools to build model, and examine seasonality pattern of the number of cases of motor accident
recorded at the Federal Road Safety Commission, Osun Sector command using secondary data
collected from the record section of the command from 2006 to 2012. Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) depicts reduction in the recorded number of cases recorded. This result
was corroborated by Least Squares trend with quarterly decline of six (6) cases of motor accident.
The seasonal pattern clearly portrayed quarter four (October, November, and December) as the
season with high prevalence of motor accident. It was finally concluded that the Federal Road
Safety Commission has been performing to expectation in the manner it discharges her duties by
adjuring from the results of the analyses
Keywords: Model, Time Series, Trend, accident, road safety, seasonal