Impact of Price Instability on Unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (Published)
This study is an empirical examination of the impact of price instability on unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 to 2015. Main variables used in this study are unemployment, inflation rate (proxy for consumer price index), GDP growth rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment (proxied by Gross Fix Capital Formation) Interest Rate, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Per Capita Income. The sources of data are statistical bulletins published by World Bank Development Indicators (WBDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2015 respectively. There are three regression equations in which the relationship between dependent and independent variables have been tested. The first model is explaining the effect of inflation or price instability and other macroeconomic variables on GDP in Nigeria. The second model explains the effects of unemployment and other economic variables on real GDP while the third model is formulated to describe the effect of macroeconomic variables on unemployment in Nigeria. To achieve these objectives, stationarity tests were conducted with simple Ordinary Least Square using E-views version 8 software. Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips-Perron unit root test reveals that all the series in the models were stationary, with evidence of a unique long run relationship among the variables in the model. Findings from the OLS regression output reveals the coefficients of imports, exports, exchange rate and manufacturing growth rate as having negative effect on the key dependent variables of gdp-growth rate, price instability and unemployment rate. On the contrary, the coefficients of investment, per capita income and foreign direct investment show positive relationship with the dependent variables in the model. Major policy recommendations of this study are as follows: Government should embark on policies that will reduce the number of imported goods drastically and encourage local production and consumption to encourage domestic industries. This will help reduce unemployment and inflation in Nigeria and improve the gross domestic product figures greatly. Furthermore, over the years, foreign partners in Nigeria has had cause to repatriate their investible funds back to their shores as Nigeria increasingly became unsafe destinations for businesses owing to streams of violence and kidnappings across the country. Government should therefore engage the various agitators and stakeholders across the nation such as the Niger-Delta militants, IPOD/MASSOB and Fulani herdsmen with a view to finding lasting solutions to their demand for genuine peace to be entrenched in the polity. This is one sure way to encourage more foreign inflow of capital for economic growth.
Keywords: OLS, Price Instability, Unemployment, economic growth
Price Expectation and the Philips Curve Hypothesis: The Nigerian Case (Published)
The objective of this study was to determine if there exist asymmetry between price expectation and unemployment as captured by Philip’s curve in the Nigerian economy. In other word to determine the validity of Philips curve hypothesis in Nigeria. The Co-integration method was used to analyze this relationship between unemployment and inflation. The data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin for the period under study (1970 to 2011).The result obtained revealed a direct or positive relationship between inflation and unemployment in Nigeria as against inverse relationship between the two macroeconomic problems. The implication of our finding is that policy planner’s awareness of the Nigerian case would be guided on the path of policy direction in line with these twin evil of macro economy.
Keywords: Asymmetry And National Discomfort, Macro Economy, Price Expectation, Unemployment
Economic Growth and Unemployment in Fiji: A Cointegration Analysis (Published)
Fiji has been experiencing high unemployment rate since 1990s. Unemployment has become increasingly more pronounced from 2000 due to the political instability, expiry of land leases and operational problems in garment and gold industry. On the other hand, there was a surge in number of graduates following the establishment of two new universities. Additionally a sharp decline in investment in the post coup years of 2000 ensued, contributing to further increase in unemployment rate and sluggish economic growth. This paper seeks to investigate whether long run association among growth and unemployment is relevant for Fiji for the period 1982-2012. Johansen Cointegration test procedure has been applied to ascertain the assocaition among growth, investment and unemployment. Result confirmed the evidence of long-run association among unemployment and growth, with cointegration running from investment and unemployment to increase in economic output. Economic policies should gear towards improving investment.
Keywords: Fiji, Unemployment, economic growth, investmnent
Curbing Graduate Unemployment in Nigeria: Case of Cross River State. (Review Completed - Accepted)
The plum arising from Nigeria’s large oil-cash receipts has informed a neglect of Agriculture, Skill/Innovation and Entrepreneurship which would evolve an industrial state with the capacity to absorb her teeming youth population. Worse still, the country’s education system is tailored along lines that produce graduates lacking requisite mental infrastructure and experience and therefore making them misfits in the economy. The paper explores ways of curbing Nigeria’s unemployment dilemma, emphasizing the educationist point of view; we specifically investigated the proximate causes of graduate unemployment in Nigeria using Cross River State as our case study. Random sampling procedures are adopted to survey six Local Government Areas across the three senatorial districts in the state. Results reveal an inverse relationship between skill acquisition/innovation, entrepreneurship, economic diversification and unemployment. It is recommended that public policy should emphasize technical/vocational education leading to self-reliance and self-employment, innovation and entrepreneurship, while effort should be made to reduce corruption and institutional bottlenecks at all levels of government.
Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Self-reliance, Technical Education, Unemployment