The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Economic Growth and Non-oil exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An ARDL approach (Published)
Using annual data covering the period from 2000 to 2020 the effect of volatility was estimated on economic growth and crude oil prices on Saudi non-oil exports, each of the two sectors was chosen, Exports from manufacturing industries, agricultural exports, and high-tech exports to represent Non-oil export, also we Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The study followed the application of the ARDL model to study the equilibrium relationship between all of the volatility in oil prices, the three export sectors. The results indicated that the sector Exports of manufacturing industries is the sector most affected by the fluctuation in the price of oil, while the results did not indicate the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship through which the sectors of agricultural exports and high-tech products are affected by the change in oil prices.The study recommends the need to increase investments for these twoSectors to secure a stable export proceeds that guarantee the stability of the Kingdom’s economic growth rates.To reach the above, we have relied on measuring the impact of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period 2000-2020, based on a model the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).
Citation: Mahmoud Amin El-batanony, Hala Samir El ghawy, Zeinab Abdel Rashid, Engy Taser El Sheikh , . Safaa Salah El Dien, Wafaa Fangary Said and Mahmoud Farouk Mohamed Ghorab (2022) The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Economic Growth and Non-oil exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An ARDL approach, International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, Vol.10, No.2, pp.49-61
Keywords: Co-integration, Non-Oil Exports, Oil prices, ardl model
Exchange Rate Variation and Non-Oil Exports in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (Published)
The paper examined the impact of exchange rate variation on the competitiveness of Nigerian non-oil exports using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model after the diagnostic tests reveal that variables were integrated of different orders. The ARDL estimation showed the presence of a long run relationship between the variables in the model. The results revealed that a 1% increase in exchange rate variation, degree of openness and bilateral exchange rate (RER) which measured the competitiveness of the nation’s exports will cause a 14.67%, 63.21% and 7.49% reductions respectively in the volume of non-oil exports in the long run. The short run dynamics revealed that the variables above exerted a negative effect on the volume of non-oil exports from Nigeria. The GDP showed positive impacts on the volume of trade both in the short and long run. The study therefore recommended the vigorous pursuance of exchange rate stabilization policies in order to minimize variation in rates and improve the competitiveness of the nation’s non-oil exports as well as the imposition of slight restrictions on non-capital imports and consumables to reduce the effect of openness on the Economy.
Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, Degree of Openness and Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Variation, Non-Oil Exports