Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate in South Africa (Published)
Fluctuation in exchange rate has continued to be a major treat to economic growth and maintaining its stability and competitiveness poses serious concern to government and all stakeholders. Despite series of policies and programmes undertaken by governments of various countries, exchange rate instability remains a menace. This paper evaluated the impact of some macroeconomics variables on South Africa’s Rand using annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. Multiple regression with OLS estimator was adopted for the data analysis and the results showed that exchange rate has positive relationship with interest rate while it has negative relationship with gross domestic product growth rate and net foreign trade. Although these individual relationships are not significant enough to influence the exchange rate but there is evidence the combine effect of these macroeconomic variables has significant influence on exchange rate in South Africa.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, gross domestic product growth, net foreign trade
Alternative Securities Market and Long-Term Capital Market Financing in Nigeria (Published)
This study examined the effects of the Alternative Securities Market (ASeM) on long term capital market financing in Nigeria during the period 2013 – 2020. The objectives of the study were to: find out the effects of ASeM equity issues on market capitalization in the Nigerian stock market; to assess the effect of ASeM index on market capitalization; to investigate the effect of interest rate on Market Capilisation; to assess effect of inflation rate on market capitalization; and to ascertain the effect of exchange rate on market capitalization in Nigeria during the period of study. The study adopted ex-post facto research design and made use of secondary data. Time series data for the period 2013 – 2020 from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and well as data from Nigeria stock exchange publications were used. The study employed multiple regression analysis using Econometric-views (E-views) 10.0, to analyse the data. In the analysis, long term capital market financing was proxied by Mcap (market capitalization) and this was the dependent variable. The independent variables of the study included ASeM equity issues, ASeM index, interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. The results showed that ASEM equity issues had a negative but insignificant effect on long term capital market financing (Mcap); ASeM index had a significant positive effect on long term capital market financing (Mcap); interest rate had a negative but insignificant effect on long term capital market financing; inflation rate had negative but significant effect on long term capital market financing; exchange rate had a positive but insignificant effect on long term capital market financing in Nigeria during the period of the study. The study recommended that regulatory authorities (SEC and Nigeria Exchange Group) should encourage greater participation of SMEs in the activities of the alternative securities market through equity share issues to boost or enhance long term capital market financing; regulatory agencies should sustain measures that caused ASeM index to have a significant positive effect on long term capital market financing; monetary authorities (especially, the CBN) should employ policy measures to address the negative effect of interest rate and inflation rate on long term capital market financing in Nigeria among others.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Index, Inflation, Interest Rate, Market Capitalization, equity issues
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981 – 2020) (Published)
This study examined the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. The specific objectives are to determine the effects of exchange rate, inflation and interest rate on gross domestic product (GDP). The data on the variables were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root as well as bounds cointegration tests and ARDL model. The unit root test results showed that the variables are mixed integrated. While inflation is stationary at levels, the other variables in the model were stationary at first difference. The bounds cointegration test showed that long run relationship exists between GDP growth and the underlying explanatory variables. The findings showed that exchange rate and inflation negatively impacted on economic growth. This finding indicates that increase in exchange rate and price level is detrimental to the growth of the Nigerian economy. There is evidence of a significant positive effect of interest rate on GDP growth. This finding explains the reality in Nigeria, where businesses and households tend to borrow even as interest rate increases, but tend to cut corners by reducing the quality of their products and services or pass-on the increased costs of borrowing to consumers by increasing prices. Given the findings, this study recommends amongst others that the federal government through the CBN should ensure that exchange rate policy should is consistent to provide opportunity for a realistic and stable exchange rate capable of driving economic growth in Nigeria.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, economic growth
Oil Revenue and Behaviour of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators in Nigeria: 1981 – 2019 (Published)
The paper studied oil revenue and behavior of selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria from 1981-2019. The main purpose were interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate within the time frame. The paper was anchored on the Endogenous growth theory. The study adopted ex-post facto research method while Ordinary Least Square was used to process the data gathered using E-view software. The findings indicates that apart from interest rate, no significance relationship exist between the two other variables study with oil revenue. While the study concludes that inflation rate and exchange rate can be stabilized through effective monetary policy measure. The study therefore recommends diversification and encouragement of more participation of nongovernmental sector in economy development.
Keywords: Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, and oil proceeds., oil boom