International Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria (Published)
This study evaluated the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021.The variables used in this study comprised of gross domestic product as a dependent variable, while oil exports, non-oil exports, oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate are the explanatory variables. The employed variables have different order of integration ranging from zero and one, which led to the application of auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the method of analysis. The ARDL model investigated long-run and short-run interactions among the variables. The results showed evidence of co-integrating equations amongst the variables. Hence, the key findings that satisfied the research objectives are (i) oil exports have significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. (ii) Non-oil exports exerted positive and significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. (iii). Oil imports negatively and significantly affected the growth rate of the Nigeria’s economy and (iv) non-oil imports affect the economic growth in Nigeria negatively and insignificantly in both the short-run long-run. The results imply that N1 rise in oil exports increases economic growth by N0.089 in the short-run and by N0.376 in the long-run; whereas N1 rise in non-oil exports increases economic growth by N0.047 in the short-run and N0.199 increase in the long-run. However, N1 rise in oil imports, decreases economic growth by N0.019 in the short-run and N0.092 decrease in the long-run; whereas N1 rise in non-oil imports, decreases economic growth by N0.022 in the short-run and N0.92 decrease in the long-run. Based on the findings, the study recommended that Nigerian government should make judicious use of proceeds from export of crude oil to diversify other productive sectors of the economy. Again, the activities of non-oil sectors like agriculture, industry, etc, should be stimulated to enhance non-oil exports in Nigeria.
Keywords: Exports, Imports, International Trade, Nigeria, economic growth
Disaggregated Imports and Economic Growth in Nigeria (Published)
This study examines how much of the variance in economic growth can be explained by various categories of imports in Nigeria. The study is set to investigate whether it is the import-led or export-led growth hypothesis that holds for Nigeria. The Johansen testing approach to cointegration and the standard desk top pairwise Granger-causality test technique were implimented to achieve this objective. The cointegration test results demonstrate that the relationship between economic growth and decomposed import variables in Nigeria are stable and coalescing in the long run. Particular categories of interest in this study are Food & Life Animal, Manufactured Goods, and Machinery & Transport Equipment as the trio constitute over 75 percent of aggregate import bills during the period under review. Evidence from the pairwise granger casualty tests, contrary to expectation, suggests that import-led growth hypothesis does not hold for Nigeria. These results cannot be divorced from certain factors such as lack of capacity to take advantage of the advanced technologies embodied in the imported capital goods, inability to sustain installed manufacturing capacity and corrupt practices in procurement processes, associated with contracts for the importation of manufactured and capital goods for most failed capital projects.
Keywords: Cointrgration, Disaggregated Imports, Exports, GDP growth, Granger Causality