Impact of Disaggregated Public Expenditure on Economic Growth of Selected African Countries: A Panel VECM (Published)
The study investigated the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and disaggregated public expenditure in selected West African Countries with panel data spanning 1990-2017. The study employed panel co-integration based on Pedroni and Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) with Engle and Granger´s procedure for empirical analysis. The findings revealed that expenditure on infrastructure, health and education have positive impact on economic growth at about 2%, 6% and 2% respectively, but only expenditure on infrastructure is significant. Defence expenditures and education expenditures at both lags have indirect and insignificant influence on economic growth while health expenditure has direct and insignificant impact on economic growth at all lags. The study recommends policy makers to focus on developing health, infrastructure and education sectors which has not contributed significantly enough to economic growth in the selected African countries
Keywords: Defence, Education, Health, Infrastructure, PVECM, economic growth
Education and Economic Growth in South Asia (Published)
Interconnection between education and economic growth is a subject of great interest in most developing nations in the world today. This is because economic growth is one of the key indicators of the level of national development. In this study, regression analysis is applied to look into the genuine effects and the relationship between education and economic growth of the Southern Asian Countries such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Maldives, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The methodology consists of the means of estimation and econometric analysis which help to determine the actual quantitative effects of education in economic growth especially in South Asian nations. By this, an affirmation of the relationship between the two variables can be made due to enough evidence obtained in this study.
Keywords: Education, GDP, Regression, South Asia, economic growth
The Effect of Natural Capital on Economic Growth in Botswana (Published)
This study empirically analyses the effects of natural capital on economic growth in Botswana using annual data from 1994 until 2016. In contrary to the existing literature, the study employed the mineral asset value as a proxy for natural capital deduced from the newly developed Mineral Accounts and Macroeconomic Indicators of Sustainable Development Frameworks. This proxy provides the inclusive wealth index of natural capital by taking into account the estimated economic value of minerals in the ground and their depletion overtime. The Autoregressive Lag Model (ARDL) employed indicates that mineral asset value used as a proxy for natural capital significantly and positively affect Botswana’s economic growth. Other determinants of growth used as regressors including human capital and foreign direct investment also have a similar effect on economic growth over the period under review. Despite government efforts to diversify the economy from minerals, the mining sector is still the backbone of the economy. The study, therefore recommends that the country should continue using its mineral revenues to diversify its assets portfolio to improve physical and human capital to achieve sustainable economic growth. The country should also adopt a new growth model where technology will be at the forefront of economic development.
Keywords: Autoregressive Distributive Lag model, Mineral Asset Value, Natural Capital, economic growth
The Role of Fiscal Policy in Achieving Economic Stability in Jordan (Published)
The present investigation inspected the effect of fiscal approach estimated by (Government use, Government incomes, inward open obligation, outside open obligation) notwithstanding fares and swelling factors on the Jordanian GDP development. Fiscal approach assumes a huge job in a monetary arrangement because of its capacity to acknowledge objectives went for by a national economy. Its instruments are viewed as one of the primary financial devices to accomplish monetary development and beat obstructions to monetary soundness. Notwithstanding its distributional and pro impacts, financial arrangement has steadiness initiating impacts, for example, government spending and expenses which impact total interest, along these lines influencing in general monetary factors and financial development. The significance of fiscal arrangement radiates from the way that open spending is viewed as the prime drive for financial movement of a nation by affecting the dimension of total interest and subsequently monetary development. Open incomes fill in as the principle wellspring of salary for a nation while open obligation is a piece of the administration’s spending, regardless of whether inside or outer. This paper introduces a utilization of a hypothetical model to survey the impacts of monetary arrangement on financial development.
Keywords: Economic Stability., Fiscal Policy, Gross Domestic Product, Jordanian economy., economic growth
Capital Flight and the Nigerian Economy (1986-2016) (Published)
This study examined the impact of capital flight on the Nigerian economy from 1986-2016 Real Gross Domestic Product and Capital Flight were used as the endogenous variables while Political instability, Amount of Looted funds, Interest Rate Differentials, Expenses on Foreign Medical Services and Education Abroad and Domestic Investment were the explanatory variables. Data for these variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, World Bank Development Index, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Bulletins, Tertiary Education Trust Fund Publications and the Federal Ministry of Information Annual Briefings and Extracts (various editions). The variables were found to be integrated of mixed order hence we confirmed the long run relationship existing among the variables using the Bounds test. The simultaneous equation model shows a negative and significant relationship between capital flight and economic growth. Domestic Investment and Interest Rate Differential both have positive relationships with Real GDP while Political Instability, looted Funds, Expenses on Foreign Education and Medical Services were found to have positive and significant impact on Capital Flight. The implication of these findings is that Capital flight have negatively impacted on Economic growth of Nigeria with Foreign Education and Medical Expenses and Looted Funds being the major channels through which huge capital leave the country. It was recommended that our education and health infrastructures should be adequately funded and maintained. Also, the government should ensure good governance and prosecution of corrupt officials in order to discourage capital and encourage domestic investments.
Keywords: Capital Flight, Interest Rate Differentials, Looted Funds, economic growth
Trade Openness and Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1990- 2015) (Published)
This study examines empirically the relationship between Trade openness and Economic growth in Nigeria. The study covered the period 1990 – 2015, using ARDL approach to cointegration. The ARDL result confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between Economic Growth, Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Capital Formation. It was found that Trade Openness and Gross Capital Formation had positive and negative impacts respectively on growth rate of GDP in the short run. Therefore, this study concludes by recommending that; (i) trade openness should be regulated by government; from our result an increase in trade openness caused a decrease in our GDP (ii) FDI should be encouraged as it was seen to have significantly improved economic growth in Nigeria.
Keywords: Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), Nigeria, economic growth, trade openness
Impact of Price Instability on Unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (Published)
This study is an empirical examination of the impact of price instability on unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 to 2015. Main variables used in this study are unemployment, inflation rate (proxy for consumer price index), GDP growth rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment (proxied by Gross Fix Capital Formation) Interest Rate, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Per Capita Income. The sources of data are statistical bulletins published by World Bank Development Indicators (WBDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2015 respectively. There are three regression equations in which the relationship between dependent and independent variables have been tested. The first model is explaining the effect of inflation or price instability and other macroeconomic variables on GDP in Nigeria. The second model explains the effects of unemployment and other economic variables on real GDP while the third model is formulated to describe the effect of macroeconomic variables on unemployment in Nigeria. To achieve these objectives, stationarity tests were conducted with simple Ordinary Least Square using E-views version 8 software. Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips-Perron unit root test reveals that all the series in the models were stationary, with evidence of a unique long run relationship among the variables in the model. Findings from the OLS regression output reveals the coefficients of imports, exports, exchange rate and manufacturing growth rate as having negative effect on the key dependent variables of gdp-growth rate, price instability and unemployment rate. On the contrary, the coefficients of investment, per capita income and foreign direct investment show positive relationship with the dependent variables in the model. Major policy recommendations of this study are as follows: Government should embark on policies that will reduce the number of imported goods drastically and encourage local production and consumption to encourage domestic industries. This will help reduce unemployment and inflation in Nigeria and improve the gross domestic product figures greatly. Furthermore, over the years, foreign partners in Nigeria has had cause to repatriate their investible funds back to their shores as Nigeria increasingly became unsafe destinations for businesses owing to streams of violence and kidnappings across the country. Government should therefore engage the various agitators and stakeholders across the nation such as the Niger-Delta militants, IPOD/MASSOB and Fulani herdsmen with a view to finding lasting solutions to their demand for genuine peace to be entrenched in the polity. This is one sure way to encourage more foreign inflow of capital for economic growth.
Keywords: OLS, Price Instability, Unemployment, economic growth
Does Money Market Spur Economic Growth In Nigeria? Granger Causality Approach (Published)
This study examined the relationship between money market and economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted money market instruments such as treasury bills (TBs), commercial papers (CPs) and bankers’ acceptances (BAs) as proxy for money market (independent variables), and gross domestic product (GDP) as proxy for economic growth (the dependent variable). Secondary time series data for the variables were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 1989-2014. The study employed econometric techniques such as ADF, Unit Root Test, OLS, multiple regression and Granger Causality Test to analysed the study data; and found strong evidence that TBs, and CPs had positive and significant influence on GDP, while BAs had positive but insignificant influence on GDP in Nigeria. The granger causality test result revealed no directional causality relationship between TBs and GDP, meaning that TBs does not granger cause GDP and vice-versa. There was also no directional causality relationship between CPs and GDP, BAs and GDP. However, there exists bi-directional relationship running from CPs to TBs and BAs as it was established at 5 per cent level of significance. The study recommended among others that for the money market to influence meaningful economic growth and development in Nigeria, appropriate policies should be employed to strengthen and deepen the market.
Keywords: Bankers’ Acceptances, Commercial Papers, Gross Domestic Product, Money Market, Treasury Bills, economic growth
Savings-Investment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria (Published)
Nigeria as a developing nation needs adequate savings to encourage investment and promote economic growth. Empirically, this work has made an attempt to analyze the impact of savings and investment on the growth of the Nigerian economy. From the result of the study conducted within the period 1970 to 2015, using a battery of contemporary econometric approach involving unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model it was found that factors such as Gross Domestic Savings (GDS), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Labour Force (LAF) and Savings Facility (SF) are the main drivers of economic growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, evidence from the investment model shows that Real Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) are the two drivers of Investment in Nigeria. This means that if there is proper capital accumulation in the form of savings, investment would be great and sustainable. The multiplier effect is on the well-being of the people through increased capital and output. The study recommended among others that; the government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should ensure the reduction of reserve requirements of commercial banks in order to make available adequate funds in form of loans and advances for investment which will boost economic growth. Government should always maintain a good political atmosphere that is devoid of political upheavals because insecurity in the country has contributed immensely to the discouragement of the people from the cultivation of banking habit. More so, foreign direct investment will be discouraged in an environment ravaged with rancor. Banks should be encouraged to establish branches in the rural areas to discourage the rural dwellers from saving in their local saving boxes. This will bridge the gap between savings and investment. The government of Nigeria has a role to play by making policies that would encourage the spread of banks. This would be done by upgrading the standard of the Nigerian banking sector. Labour force has been revealed to be a positive growth stimulant in the study. Thus, government and the private sector should ensure that there is realistic and practical curriculum development in schools that will evolve a more productive labour force. Finally, the Governor of the apex bank (CBN) and monetary policy committee should liaise with the necessary operators to ensure that there are realistic interest and inflation rates that will stimulate economic activities and bring about the requisite economic growth in Nigeria.
Keywords: Co-integration, Investment, Nigeria, Savings, economic growth
Development Aid Impact on Economic Growth through Cross-Border Trade: Case of Waemu (Published)
The effectiveness of development assistance in the economic growth of developing countries and especially in their trade is complex and often discussed. This article tries to have a look on the cross-border trade situation of WAEMU member states and the impact of development aid on their economic growth through cross-border trade, which is seen as a driver of the economic growth of countries. The results of the GMM and the individual specific effects on the panel data for the period 2005-2015 showed a low positive impact of aid on economic growth through cross-border trade. These results have, however, raised other problems.
Keywords: Cross-border trade, Development aid, economic growth