CBN Monetary Policy and Inflation Nexus in Nigeria: An empirical approach (Published)
The study explored monetary policy effect on inflation stabilization in Nigeria. Increasing levels of indebtedness may have reduced the fiscal space for fiscal policy intervention and this leaves monetary policy as the real tool of choice for macroeconomic stabilisation. The question we need to ask then is, how effective is this tool of choice? Monthly time series data from 2009-2018 were used in estimating the model. The ADF test for the stationarity, the johansen cointegration test and the vector error correction model were utilized in testing the variables. The findings from the unit root test did indicate stationarity at first difference 1(1). The cointegration (Johansen) test indicates that there was a nexus linking inflation and all the regressors adopted in the long term. The result of the VECM for the two estimated models shows a self-equilibrating mechanism of 14 per cent and 32 per cent for the first and second models respectively. The findings further reveal that the variables; liquidity ratio, policy rate (MPR), exchange rate, reserve requirement and treasury bills rate all had an effective impact on the inflation rate and that that effect was very significant. Hence, the CBN’s monetary policy shocks do seem to have the expected traction on the Nigerian economy. The results make it pertinent for the CBN to utilize all the policy measures adopted in order to keep inflation within acceptable thresholds and prepare to keep inflation within the targeted range of 6-9 per cent, no matter the anticipated or unanticipated strong head winds.
Keywords: ADF, CBN, Cointegration, Monetary Policy, Unit Root, VECM
Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Matters For Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflow? An Empirical Reflection of the Nigerian Situation (Published)
The research has been on the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow. This has become necessary given the declining competitiveness of the Nigeria currency and economy. The study covered the period between 1981 and 2017. The Cointegration and the Error correction Model of the Ordinary least squares technique were used to analyze the data. The result of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test indicates that the variables became stationary after the first difference was taken. The Johansen Cointegration test indicates a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Also the result of the parsimonious Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates that the volatility of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) has a negative and significant impact on the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Nigeria. The openness of the economy has a positive and significant relationship with the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The interest rates has a negative and significant impact on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow. It was therefore recommended amongst others that the government should not only concentrate on the manipulation of the exchange rate but should make concerted efforts to diversify the productive base of the economy so as to increase the competiveness of the Nigerian economy and hence its currency.
Keywords: Cointegration, Foreign Direct Investment, Real Exchange Rate, Real Exchange Rate Volatility
The Determinants of Foreign Reserves in Nigeria (Review Completed - Accepted)
It has been seen that Foreign exchange reserves adequacy is a key component of good macroeconomic management. The modified version of the buffer stock model was applied to assess the determinants of foreign reserve in Nigeria. The study regressed foreign reserve variable on macroeconomic variables: real income, interest rate differential (a measure of opportunity cost), exchange rate volatility, financial openness, current account vulnerability, benchmark stock of reserves, and the demand for foreign exchange. In order to avoid any spurious regression results, the time series data from 1970 -2010 was subjected to stationarity tests. The ADF cointegration procedure used suggested the existence of long run relationships. Hence, the short run dynamics was examined by means of an error correction model. The empirical evidence shows that growth in Nigeria’s foreign reserves is not influenced in the long run by current account vulnerability (proxied by trade opennes), the opportunity cost of holding reserves (DID) and the benchmark stock of reserves but by other determinants such as the real Gross Domestic Products (Y), exchange rate volatility (Ev), financial openness (Fop), and the demand for foreign exchange (DFex).
Keywords: Benchmark, Buffer Stock, Cointegration, Determinants, Error Correction, Foreign Reserves, Long-Run, Short-Run
Is Wagner’s Law a Myth or a Reality? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria (Published)
This study attempted to examine the long-run relationship and direction of causality between economic growth and government spending with consideration for exchange rate, consumer prices and monetary policy rate. This is with a view to determine the validity of Wagner’s law in Nigeria during the period 1961 to 2011. Times series data on variables such as real GDP, government expenditure, exchange rate, inflation rate and monetary policy rate during the period (1961-2011) were used. These data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2011 Edition; World Development Indicator (WDI) Latest version and Federal Ministry of Finance. The study identified the order of integration of the variables used in the study using Phillips-Perron unit root test. The test was conducted with a drift and Time trend. The study also employed Johansen multivariate cointegration tests to determine if a group of I(1) variables converge to a long-run equilibrium. Vector Error Correction Mechanism was employed to model causal relation between economic growth and government spending. The results showed that variables are individually integrated of order one that is, a I(1) process. Johansen multivariate cointegration test showed that variables are cointegrated. Both the Trace test and Maximum-Eigen test suggest one cointegrating vector. The result of VECM estimates provided evidence in support of long-run causality running from real GDP to government spending. However, while evidence exists for long-run causality running from real GDP to government spending such evidence does not exist for short-run causality in this same direction. This indicates that Wagner’s Law is supported only in the long-run. The study therefore concludes that Wagner’s law is never a Myth but a Reality in Nigeria over the sample period.
Keywords: Cointegration, Government spending, Long-run causality, Short-run causality., economic growth
Stability of Demand for Money Function in Nigeria (Review Completed - Accepted)
This study examines the long-run demand for real broad money function and its stability in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2011. The study employs Ordinary Least Squares, Augmented-Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for unit root, Engle-Granger approach for cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests for stability. The results of the stability and cointegration tests confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between demand for real broad money aggregate and its determinants: income, domestic real interest rate, expected rate of inflation, expected foreign exchange depreciation, and foreign interest rate. Furthermore, the results show that the income elasticity and foreign interest rate coefficients are positive while the domestic real interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate depreciation coefficients are negative, respectively. Hence, the apex bank in Nigeria can target the broad money (M2) aggregate to achieve macroeconomic objectives
Keywords: Cointegration, Real money demand function, Stability