This study quantifies the uncertain parameters of water influx in a reservoir under an artesian water drive using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. A numerical model was developed using Schlumberger Eclipse reservoir simulation software, and a Monte Carlo simulation was performed with 1000 runs to propagate uncertainty in parameters. The results indicate a significant uncertainty in water influx rates, with a mean value of 520 m³/day and a standard deviation of 160 m³/day. Sensitivity analysis revealed that permeability and aquifer size are the most influential parameters affecting water influx, with sensitivity coefficients of 0.45 and 0.35, respectively. The 10th and 90th percentiles of the water influx rate were 340 m³/day and 710 m³/day, respectively. The study highlights the need for a probabilistic approach to account for uncertainty in reservoir simulation models and demonstrates the importance of quantifying uncertain parameters in predicting water influx rates. The results can be used to inform decision-making and optimize reservoir management strategies.
Keywords: Permeability, Quantification, aquifer size, artesian water drive, uncertain parameters, water influx
