Forecasting Peak Electricity Consumption Demand in Luzon by utilizing ARIMA Model (Published)
This research study focuses on forecasting the future values of peak demand in electricity consumption for Luzon, Philippines based on monthly historical data spanning from 2001 to 2020. The data was obtained from the official website of the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE). The primary objective of this study is to employ the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model-building procedure developed by Box and Jenkins to accomplish accurate peak demand forecasting. The methodology involved conducting various tests and evaluations to identify the ARIMA model with the least Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). After careful analysis, the best-fitting ARIMA model was determined to be ARIMA (11, 1, 12). The findings of this study indicate that, according to the ARIMA (11, 1, 12) model, Luzon’s peak demand is projected to reach 10,497.65 megawatts by December 2021. Furthermore, the model predicts that by the end of 2022, 2023, and 2024, Luzon’s peak demand will be approximately 10,738.34 MW, 10,953.98 MW, and 11,148.43 MW per electrical grid, respectively. The accuracy of the ARIMA (11, 1, 12) model is found to be satisfactory, with a low MAPE value of 3.639% and the most negligible RMSE value of 517.132. The implications of these forecasted peak demand values are significant for decision-makers in the energy and utilities sector. The accurate predictions provided by the ARIMA model can aid in resource allocation, infrastructure planning, and overall operational strategies to effectively meet the anticipated high-demand periods. In conclusion, this study successfully forecasts Luzon’s future values of peak demand in electricity consumption using the ARIMA (11, 1, 12) model. The findings highlight the importance of accurate peak demand forecasting and provide valuable insights for energy industry professionals.
Keywords: ARIMA model, Forecasting, electricity consumption, peak demand, seasonality, time series analysis.
Analysis and forecasting the outbreak of Covid-19 in Ethiopia using machine learning (Published)
Coronavirus outbreaks affect human beings as a whole and can be a cause of serious illness and death. Machine learning (ML) models are the most significant function in disease prediction, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, in high-performance forecasting and used to help decision-makers understand future situations. ML algorithms have been used for a long time in many application areas that include recognition and prioritization for certain treatments. Too many ML furcating models are used to deal with problems. In this study, predict a pandemic outbreak using the ML forecasting models. The models are designed to predict Covid-19, depending on the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases and death cases, based on the available dataset. Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Polynomial Regression (PR) models were used for this study to predict Covid-19 ‘s aggressive risk. All three cases, such as confirmed, recovered and death, models predict death in Ethiopia over the next 30 days. The experimental result showed that SVM is doing better than PR to predict the Covid-19 pandemic. According to this report, the pandemic in Ethiopia increased by half between the mid of July 2020. Then Ethiopia will face a number of hospital shortages, and quarantine place.
Keywords: COVID-19, Forecasting, coronavirus, machine learning, polynomial regressing, support vector machine
Detection of Faulty Sensors in Wireless Sensor Networks and Avoiding the Path Failure Nodes (Review Completed - Accepted)
For variety of applications, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have become a new information collection and a monitoring solution. Faults occurring due to sensor nodes are common due low-cost sensors used in WSNs, deployed in large quantities and prone to failure. The goal of this paper is to detect faulty sensors in WSNs and avoiding the path failure nodes. Fault detection is based on the local pair-wise verification between the sensors monitoring the same physical system. Specifically, a linear relationship is shown between the output of any pair of sensors, when the input of a system comes from a common source. Using this relationship, faulty sensors may be detected by using forecasting model based on the parameter (i.e., temperature) and it also identifies which sensor is normal or abnormal. After the fault nodes are detected, first of all disable all the faulty nodes so that network is not affected by erroneous reading and send the information to the base station. Due to the nature of proposed algorithm, it can be scaled to large sensor networks and also saves energy from reduced wireless communication compared to the centralized approaches
Keywords: Fault detection, Forecasting, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs).
Predicting the Nigerian Stock Market Using Artificial Neural Network (Published)
Forecasting a financial time series, such as stock market trends, would be a very important step when developing investment portfolios. This step is very challenging due to complexity and presence of a multitude of factors that may affect the value of certain securities. In this research paper, we have proved by contradiction that the Nigerian stock market is not efficient but chaotic. Two years representative stock prices of some banks stocks were analyzed using a feed forward neural network with back-propagation in Matlab 7.0. The simulation results and price forecasts show that it is possible to consistently earn good returns on investment on the Nigerian stock market using private information from an artificial neural network indicator.
Keywords: Chaotic Theory, Efficiency Theory, Forecasting, Neural Networks, Stock Market