Government Agricultural Expenditure and Sustainable Development Goal One in Nigeria (Published)
This study investigates the impact of government expenditure on agriculture, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates on poverty in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022, using panel regression analysis to explore the relationship between these variables and the Poverty Headcount Ratio (PHR). The findings reveal that government expenditure on agriculture has a significant positive effect on poverty levels, indicating that higher agricultural spending may inadvertently contribute to increased poverty in the country. While inflation and exchange rates do not significantly affect poverty, interest rates show a positive and significant relationship with poverty, suggesting that higher interest rates exacerbate poverty by limiting access to affordable credit. The study highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of agricultural spending and reducing interest rates to alleviate poverty. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for comprehensive economic policies and institutional strengthening to address the complex factors influencing poverty in Nigeria. The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing new insights into the mixed effects of agricultural expenditure and the significant role of interest rates in poverty dynamics. The findings offer valuable recommendations for policymakers aiming to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development in Nigeria.
Keywords: Agriculture, Exchange Rates, Government Expenditure, Inflation, Interest rates., Nigeria, Panel regression, Poverty Reduction, economic policy, poverty headcount ratio
Effect of Crude Oil Price Shock on Inflation and Exchange Rate in Nigeria (Published)
: The study examined the effect of crude oil price shock on inflation and exchange rate in Nigeria. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, covering the period between 1990 and 2022. Secondary data were extracted from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators. Multiple regression technique was used for test of hypotheses. The findings revealed a noteworthy adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigeria’s inflation rate, indicated by a probability value of 0.0180. Additionally, the impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates in Nigeria was also adverse and statistically significant, as reflected by a probability value of 0.047. Moreover, these findings align with established economic theory. The negative effect of oil price shocks on the exchange rate can be explained by the consistent devaluation of the Naira relative to the US Dollar in response to abrupt, particularly negative, changes in oil prices. The study, therefore, recommended that the government should enhance the proportion of funds allocated to the excess crude accounts relative to its revenue expenditures. By doing so, the government can build a financial cushion that can be tapped into when price shocks disrupt the crude oil market. Furthermore, it is advisable to employ contractionary monetary and fiscal policies when price shocks occur. These policies can effectively counteract excessive cost-push inflation that may result from the shocks. By reducing the overall demand in the economy through measures like higher interest rates and reduced government spending, inflationary pressures can be curbed.
Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rate, Inflation, crude oil price shock, excess crude accounts, financial cushion