From Prospect Ranking to Capital Allocation: Integrating 2G&R Synthesis and Uncertainty Analysis in Deepwater Salt-Tectonic Exploration (Published)
Deepwater salt-tectonic basins represent some of the most material remaining exploration opportunities globally, offering the potential for giant discoveries while simultaneously imposing exceptional technical and financial risk. Despite significant advances in subsalt imaging, play-based exploration, and probabilistic resource assessment, a persistent disconnect remains between sophisticated geoscientific evaluation and the binary, capital-intensive investment decisions that ultimately govern exploration outcomes. Too often, uncertainty is either oversimplified or poorly translated into portfolio-relevant metrics, limiting the ability of technical insight to meaningfully influence capital allocation.This paper presents an integrated, decision-focused framework designed to bridge that gap. The approach systematically links Geology, Geophysics, Geochemistry, and Reservoir (2G&R) synthesis with formal uncertainty quantification, prospect ranking, and portfolio-level economic evaluation. Central to the methodology is a sequential, closed-loop workflow that begins with Common Risk Segment (CRS) mapping to preserve geological dependencies across prospects, propagates subsurface uncertainty through probabilistic volumetric analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, and translates volume distributions into risked economic metrics under multiple price scenarios. These outputs are then aggregated at the portfolio level to guide capital allocation decisions, including seismic acquisition, block ranking, and partner alignment.The framework is demonstrated through application to a deepwater U.S. Gulf of America case study characterized by complex allochthonous salt tectonics, limited well control, and competing demands for exploration capital. Results show that the integrated workflow produced a materially different prospect and block ranking compared to traditional volume-led or heuristic approaches. Most notably, a formal Value of Information analysis quantified the probability that uncertainty reduction would generate economic uplift exceeding cost, directly supporting the sanctioning of a multi-million-dollar ocean-bottom node (OBN) seismic program. The same portfolio logic informed block prioritization for an upcoming license round and provided transparent risk–reward visualizations that enabled partner-aligned investment decisions.The study demonstrates that formalizing the geoscience-to-investment workflow is not an academic exercise, but a practical necessity for capital efficiency and decision quality in frontier and deepwater exploration. By preserving geological fidelity while embedding economic relevance, the framework transforms subsurface evaluation into a strategic planning tool, offering a replicable pathway for disciplined exploration of the world’s remaining complex hydrocarbon resources.
Keywords: 2G&R synthesis, Common Risk Segment mapping, Deepwater exploration, Probabilistic volumetrics, Prospect ranking, Salt tectonics, Uncertainty analysis